The bottom 4 seem close to 0%.
Alright, surely GA will be graded then!!!111!!
https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/status/1335956442638114818?s=19
I am strangely unbothered by this, I guess because 2020 has just numbed me to everything, but it’s fucking wild that I’ve got ~$5k locked up on predictit because they won’t settle bets on an election that took place more than a month ago.
And this isn’t like .98-.99 per contract - right now, “Will Trump win PA, AZ, or GA?” is trading at 16 cents.
The safe harbor deadline isn’t actually real guys.
PI’s making an error if they’re going off electoral college as those are irrelevant to the individual state market.
if they’re going off the lawsuit that mail in ballots might get thrown out thus trump wins a state like PA, then yeah they shouldn’t until that is resolved.
If a state’s election gets thrown out–then all NO’s win. Load up on biden/trump no’s now.
There’s some markets ending on the 14th though or only counting the 14th numbers if you read the rules or they are supposed to follow them but we’ll see I guess.
fwiw I’m taking no faithless electors, I think names/addresses get posted in public and I’m gonna guess they don’t want to deal with mobs
well except the PI comment that one may have died and now can’t submit it , that needs further research
I assume most states have procedures for replacement electors. For example, in Colorado:
The presidential electors shall convene at the capital of the state, in the office of the governor at the capitol building, on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in the first December following their election at the hour of 12 noon and take the oath required by law for presidential electors. If any vacancy occurs in the office of a presidential elector because of death, refusal to act, absence, or other cause, the presidential electors present shall immediately proceed to fill the vacancy in the electoral college. When all vacancies have been filled, the presidential electors shall proceed to perform the duties required of them by the constitution and laws of the United States. The vote for president and vice president shall be taken by open ballot.
Hunter investigated so his arrest shares got boosted a bit, I took some NO’s since well there actually is an end date.
maybe it’ll get higher somehow, he has to get charged within 3 weeks, I guess they’re counting on some trump spite? or arrest everyone named biden by then?
I sold out of my Hunter position thinking I could pick up the free money in the state markets and still get back into the Hunter market for more free money before 12/31. Lol me, the Hunter market is going to resolve first.
JFC settle the markets.
Tai will get confirmed but the last 2 US TR’s weren’t done till after march 1st (would resolve NO in those markets), gonna depend on the order they get around to them. Villsack for Agriculture another one to watch on that front. (he’s also a lock to get confirmed but when the yget around to it is another matter) Interior/HUD/etc will all be close. Just order by importance and that’s gonna be close to the order the senate handles them.
Got an email from PI saying they planning to settle markets after December 14th. Basically hinted to Trumpkins to sell now or lose everything LOL.
Hope this is true. Looks like there has already been a slight (1-2 cents) price response to this.
Good, it’ll be nice to free that money back up. Full text for those interested:
Dear xxx,
Many of you have written to us to ask about the timeline for closing the remaining election markets, or to advise either that we take action or refrain from doing so. We want you to know we are listening to you and appreciate your input.
As you know, as of this moment, the outcome of the presidential election in several states still remains the subject of litigation in state and federal courts, including the US Supreme Court. This has created unprecedented uncertainty well beyond the time that election markets normally settle.
In light of these ongoing disputes, PredictIt currently anticipates that we will begin settling markets on individual state results in accordance with each market’s rules only after electors have cast their votes on Dec. 14, unless in our view there is a conclusive outcome before then.
In the meantime, traders who wish to exit their positions should be able to sell their shares, as trading continues in most markets at this time.
Thank you for your patience.
PredictIt Team
Note: For general information on PredictIt’s decisions on market closings, please see PredictIt’s FAQ titled “How Does PredictIt Decide When to Close a Market?”
Weird, I didn’t get one.
So they’ve basically changed the rules and they are no longer popular vote markets?
It’s going to be amazing if this closes at .90, never seen anything like that before.