Only one time ever did an elector vote for an opponent, 1796. Seems likely we see history this year.
Hopefully it happens (in small amounts) because this will further the argument that we need to ditch the electoral college
I don’t expect any faithless electors this time around. Being a NeverTrump guy is no longer en vogue within the party and Trump is on the way out anyway, so there’s just no reason to make a scene. Nobody who is pledged to Biden is going to take the risk of being the vote who loses it for Biden. There’s just no motive for anyone to do anything other than vote for the guy they’re supposed to vote for.
Uh there was 10 attempted last time there will for sure be non zero. HRC might get one!
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Last time was a special case where both the winner was unfit for office and the loser’s party was divided, with Clinton being unpopular in some Democratic areas. Clinton’s faithless electors were also motivated in part by trying to join up with NeverTrump Republicans to deny Trump an Electoral College majority, which is why three of them voted for Colin Powell.
None of that applies this time. The winner is a fairly inoffensive generic Democrat who nobody within the Democrats regards as unfit for office, and in any case Trump is viewed so negatively that there’s no way anyone will do anything but run up the Biden score. Last time Clinton was losing anyway so it didn’t matter. The Republican Party is wholly the party of Trump, there’s no mileage in taking a symbolic stand against him. This is more like 2008 or 2012 despite the presence of Trump.
Why on earth would HRC get one, that makes no sense. There are no HRC stans who aren’t also fine with Biden.
Other than the results I don’t think this election was that much different than the last one so would expect someone to vote for Bernie again and someone to vote for Ronald Reagan’s ghost or something. We’ll see but would be shocked if there’s none.
As regards someone voting for Bernie, the fact that the Democrat is actually winning this time (and that there is real danger of Electoral College shenanigans) is a massive difference from 2016.
A Trump faithless elector is not impossible but unlike 2016 when some GOP guys were still under the impression the party was going to make a stand for Conservative Principles or whatever, it’s now abundantly clear that you get zero credit for taking a stand against Trump and that it just gets you hated by a lot of people. Even with that, the additional problem is that there is just nobody obvious you would vote for in the party, which is why you had to go with Ronald Reagan’s ghost.
It’s not impossible that some Trump elector makes some dramatic show of principle and defects to Biden. It could happen but I don’t see why you would commit career suicide and become hated to the point of probable death threats from like a third of the country to vote against a guy who is losing anyway.
I’ll take bets if people want to vote for not 306 - 232.
Sure I’ll go $50 to charity of choice that they won’t go 306-232, reply to book.
biden electors for trump?
I could see arguments for either happening. Biden electors who think its rigged going for Trump, Trump electors who are sick of Trump trying to undermine our democratic process going for Biden
I don’t think you guys understand who these electors are. Biden electors aren’t going to think it’s rigged for Trump.
Booked
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Yeah the electors are party apparatchiks from those states. In 2016 the Clinton faithless electors were from states like Washington and Hawaii where the state parties favour Bernie. In 2020 there are no states sending Republican electors where the party members are not either Trumpers or willing to pretend to be given that he is losing anyway. It’s also a mortal lock that no Biden electors prefer Trump.
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I see. So i guess the only chances for a Biden faithless elector are a progressive voting for (likely) Bernie
Last time only one guy voted for Bernie and he said he’d have voted Clinton if his vote had any chance of mattering. Not voting for your guy when your guy stands to win the vote, in an environment of worry around procedural shenanigans where democracy is on the ballot, is serious biz that definitely gets you thrown out of the party and blackballed from liberal political circles.
It’s easier for losing party electors to make grand gestures with their vote but you tell me that with the mood of the MAGA base at the moment, you think there are Trump electors out there who want to fuck around and find out. If you put ME in there as a Trump elector, I vote Trump and don’t think twice about it.
PredictIt is killing me not resolving any of these markets, I wanna bet the EC margin markets but I don’t wanna deposit more $. Betting ‘NO’ on all the Trump brackets above 232 feels free, and its like an 80c dollar right now. I guess i will just sell some of my 90c+ dollars
Wild swings in GA vote margin. 10K to 12.5K just went from low 20s to mid 30s to 14 back to 19.
counties are coming in with the fifteenth recount as we speak I’m not paying attention to it though I’d get beat on timing anyway
What do we think about Trump to self pardon +160? I’m leaning towards maxing it out.
It’s admittedly hard to come up with reasons why he wouldn’t at least try. Presumably the market doesn’t require that legal challenges fail?
Do it
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