Are the cabinet ‘NO’ things really free money? No way for Mitch to do some fuckery to keep the Trump cabinet people in place past Feb 15? Those are basically the only markets I haven’t played yet
They are def missing the ‘NO’ side of things unless I’m reading things wrong. Like if you think ‘Biden president’ is free money, then you should think all of the GOP EC margin markets are free money, which is equal to like a 70c market, because you can max all the markets from 0-9 up to 280+ with a single $850. Same for the state margin markets, if you think Biden to win PA is a free money, then you can max all the Trump margin markets in the raw vote margin market and the MOV markets.
if mitch fucks around under a biden presidency, all NO’s win because biden isn’t gonna keep barr or stephen miller around
also it’s way closer to 80 now than 70
and whatever the **** is going on in PA
So at this point predictit yes’s for trump to win are basically behaving like penny stocks after a company has declared bankruptcy? Like people are buying it hoping it goes up a few cents before the market settles so they can sell at a profit? I can’t figure out what else is going on.
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Wheatrich is watching the conspiracy theory community like a hawk watching field mice for a reason.
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Your pocketbook will figure it out on the 20th of January in the Year of Trump 2020, Lib. Do your own research.
Fucked up the year but it seems appropriate so it’s staying.
One of the big moves that way was actually me but I took the cheap 20ish% profit except a few 1c/2c in a secret place in case something moves enough and got back in the other way. lol me if it was too soon–I definitely could’ve guessed wrong on timing.
Most of those people truly believe though. The other is that it’s a lot less money to shift lines toward the middle than the edges. ie, for every 850 on 90 NO, it only takes 85 to match it in the order book. So things don’t take much to get pushed past 10 and most regs did what this board did and just throw it on a side and leave it.
was predictable the kraken drop would move it somewhat but now it’s based on whether things will happen, PA seems like a token gesture from the crazies but who knows, PA SCOTUS isn’t gonna rule in favor of trump, I have no idea whether USA SCOTUS will take a case or not and that would definitely move the line.
surely this will result in WI market being graded! /s
I assume these betting markets make money off the float? I can see them not grading any of these bets until the EC, or maybe even inauguration day.
PredictIt doesnt make anything except for when the market is graded and when ppl cash out afaik
They have to be constantly making money on float, but I suspect the real money is, as you suggest, in the fees.
They don’t have the money in some kind of interest-bearing account?
So by the end of the day tomorrow all 6 states that are supposedly undetermined on PI will have been certified for Biden.
Yeah good call it looks like they do
d. the Clearing House will be entitled to any interest accumulated on the funds held in the Clearing Account; this interest will not be held on trust for you or anyone else, and the Clearing House is entitled to pay it over to the Provider;
They won’t pay out until at least the 8th, there’s going to still be too many lawsuits still thrown around at every one of those states in the next week. Many books have paid out most bets tho figuring they’re better off trying to get it back during NFL season.
Pete NO on HUD seems free but it’s 98 right now sad
wonder if blanketing no’s is the correct play after tanden report (wasn’t on the list),
Predictit is a research tool operated by a nonprofit university. They have an interest in not losing money, but they may not be seeking to maximize profits.
For all I know, they may be getting useful data out of seeing how people react to delays in payouts.
I seem to remember in 2016 there was a “Will X attend the presidential debate” market that didn’t get resolved until several hours after the debate ended. PI always takes it’s sweet time grading markets.
for the most part they’ve been pretty on the ball lately