This is incredible. It’s like the fish at the poker table who calls the floor over when the dealer chops the pot while he’s holding AK against his opponents A5 on an AA33T board. Don’t play the game if you don’t know the rules.
There is so much dead money on PI.
yes
also LOL at the kraken, I presume the typos are a lawyer thing where courts give them free extra time or something but that lady really did go with antifa and hugo chavez rigged the election
Lolololo reading the comments from Trumpalos who lost their money is almost as much fun as taking their money.
No joke, I had a guy at my table in $10k PLO WSOP about 10 years ago get to showdown in a big pot and all hell break loose when he tried to play the bare ace on a four flush board.
Were his initials PH?
Thankful for Predicitit mouthbreathers willing to take 10:1 on events that have 0% chance of happening!
Yes, please definitely post some of the better comments from deplorables whose reality is shattering
Trump by 10K or more in GA is currently down to $0.89 NO. I guess they’re expecting Kraken to shift the vote count by 22,000 on the third recount?
not the recounts, getting the courts to throw out enough votes/ballots.
also I might have to make a deposit jfc as counting the cabinet markets there’s effectively 26 who will be the president markets.
Biden back down to 1.03. Surely that’s not gonna be the last time this happens right? There’s gonna be more deplorable lawsuits.
Debating whether to cashout and go all in again when the next kraken falls or let it settle.
there aren’t any more krakens, it’s if PA/MI state legislators sending their own electors under calvinball rules and scotus will be cool with that–after that then they just need one state or DQ a state like GA, whatever.
either way when the house meets to count the electoral votes, it’s going to be a massive cluster****. They will get challenged and have to meet and discuss it in each chamber and all that shit.
Does intrade have any specific rules about when these things will settle (e.g. a date or a specific condition that has to be met)? Otherwise you just run the risk of them just deciding to settle at some arbitrary time and then you won’t have any opportunity to unload shares that you never intended to keep until expiry anyway.
I guess if you’re only playing one side of the swing, then you will be OK, but I bet those who are making the most money are playing both.
This is Betfair. Their rules state
This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.
They haven’t given any updates as to what they’re planning on doing in weeks.
Edit: They posted this update today
Nov 27, Update
Update on settlement of the US election markets on the Betfair Exchange (dated Friday, 27th November, [17:00])
We have not settled certain markets on the Betfair Exchange relating to the U.S. election because of the uncertainty about the outcome of the results caused by ongoing recounts and potential legal challenges.
Given our responsibility to both backers and layers to ensure that the markets are settled correctly and given the unprecedented amount of money that has been traded on these markets, we have sought advice from leading U.S. lawyers to determine the appropriate time to settle the markets.
We currently anticipate that we will wait until the outcome of the Electoral College votes on 14 December 2020 is known before we settle the markets. This, of course, assumes that there is no conclusive outcome before this date.
The Exchange was briefly suspended at [17:00] this afternoon (Nov 27) to clear unmatched bets. It has now reopened for customers to trade their positions.
someone pushed stephen miller all the way up to 15c and I only got a small portion of it on the NO side, sad. I don’t make big max bet orders lying around because I keep thinking “well if that happens it’s because I forgot I left the order and I got screwed” but damnit
Yea for anyone that monitors this thread for deals, things on PI are currently skewed back towards GOP insanity so it’s a good time to throw money in if you’re interested. Idk what the current odds are but my manufactured -400 Biden bet is in the red so it’s better than -400 if you take all the GOP No sides of the electoral college margin market.
Like this shit is fucking crazy
280+ is insane but I’m only maxing some no’s in that market. I don’t have enough for all the free money out there and that’s the weakest of the bunch since it requires the same price for yes in everything else too.
You can max them all, you don’t have to put any more money in!
I wasn’t clear, I’ve actually got a few lottos on it not being 60 bracket as they’re gonna throw so much shit at the wall in the next two weeks.
Also, for those wanting if biden wins and everything holds money after fees updated in real time spreadsheet, well I’m sharing the link. Before you blame me for your inevitable losses, I got wrecked probably worse than you if it makes you feel better.
main guy here
https://twitter.com/GaetenD
looks like 5ish% right now if everything holds and you insta withdraw
that’s also not all of them and that’s 40k
