Betting on Politics: Predictit is NOT Dead

It’s just a click away.

https://www.predictit.org/api/marketdata/all/

The thing with the Hunter Biden market, and many of these, there’s less than 2k shares right now. …, how are new shares generated?

Hunter market doesn’t seem that great? It’ll take a year to close and you can get the same price on Hillary running for pres or Comey getting indicted.

I took the derp side at what I thought was pretty low and it moved 4 points up, cashed out. Not taking a long position.

My logic was if hillary as candidate can get 18-19c then 11c hunter biden conviction was probably 5-6c too cheap.

betting the old hillary not running, yang to not win dem nomination (if he had given out like 30k/yr fre ehe would’ve had a shot) 50 he would’ve won, and I guess the kav to not get impeached free money. I’m sure there’s gonna be a lot more when I delve into this. Probably will avoid the tweeting props out of sanity concerns.

Forgive me, APIs are a bit foreign to me. I’ve tried to go down this rabbit hole for Predictit before but got lost down a few different paths. Downloading python, signing up for Postman, watching random API videos… signing up for code academy to learn java, etc. It was easy to get lost.

If I wanted to access and store this data in a tabular format, so that I could have historical records to analyze either in Excel or Tableau, any recommendation on where to start? Even minimal directional would be super helpful (what tools should I download / try to learn via youtube).

That file I linked to is xml, which I think you should be able to open in Excel directly. If not, I just tested this converter and it worked:

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Got it, yes that worked just fine actually with the link you sent.

It’s my understanding this data refreshes once every minute though. What if I wanted to capture all new data automatically and create a local database of historical records… that is where I start to get in over my head.

You could do that with pretty much any database and any programming language, and those should be the only two tools you’d need. So just pick the ones you feel you’d be most comfortable working with. That’d probably be a good project to learn them.

I can take a stab at it. My instinct is to use some sort of time series database and feed this into grafana for viewing.

Looking at the raw xml i cant really make heads or tails of it so I guess I’ll start with excel.

Weird. I was stuck with a bunch of Republican nominee contracts that basically fell to worthless. So they just sit there and I had a sell order on some. My shares of Tom Cotton sold on Friday.

Impeachment first term -145/+110 (lol bovada, nice 35 cent straddle assholes)

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So its not just predictit…

Checked bovada and Hillary is now at +1600 to win the nom, tied with Kamala (!); Beto is +5000, Booker is +6000, Bernie is +1200

Lot of movement in this market this morning. I’ve got an 84 avg but picked up some at 82.

Hillary odds of running skyrocketing into the 20’s now.

If she runs I’m gonna have to quit betting on this shit forever.

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it is as i have foreseen it

now ride it back up into the 90’s

I already pushed allin. gah

right now the only value I’ve seen election ones other than anti betting–is biden in some of these primaries, I guess everyone’s presuming he’ll say something really really stupid again.

I thought I got it in good on the Hillary to run market. Now staring at No @ $0.80 I have to decide if my wife wants to open a predictit account or not.

xpost from 2020 thread… its happening?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1181571571787403265
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1181645880983732224

No fucking way. If she runs I’m going to have a stroke lol.

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