Betting on Politics: Predictit is NOT Dead

it goes to the next board and if they fail to certify then it’s either in the courts or state legislature (who wants NOTHING to do with that atm)

They’re attacking everything everywhere.

I have no idea what happens with PI though, trump wouldn’t have won via the rules maybe everybody gets refunded or all NO’s? LOL.

twitter is so stupid, you got we really won california and all 50 states versus the libs always talking about things that nobody is in any position to do anything about or beating a republican in a deep red state and the result isn’t remotely close or court packing talk with no senate. It’s just a state of our times, nobody lives in the real world anymore and both voter bases in politics on social media are dumber than a box of rocks, it’s a shame and will probably get worse from here.

The people on twitter are the “smart” ones.

If you guys had any exposure to the actual Trump base - not idiots on twitter, but like random white people in rural places - your heads would explode.

2 Likes

Michigan state law says Wayne County’s election materials now get handed over to the state board. The law then says:

The board of state canvassers shall meet immediately and make the necessary determinations and certify the results within the 10 days immediately following the receipt of the records from the board of county canvassers.

It says they “shall” do it. Not certifying the results when it’s obvious what the results are would be contrary to state law. The next step would be an order from a judge compelling board members to certify the results. If it got to the courts, it would be another case where the Trump campaign argues that black is white and gets told to gtfo.

1 Like

I guess you mean dumber in the way of just repeating it like a parrot versus some on twitter knowing they’re just full of it.

A Michigan Margin of Victory market would be nice right now

1 Like

https://twitter.com/RubleKB/status/1328882623297576961

it’s not gonna pay out tomorrow unfortunately but it did move back the 3c it lost so someone made out nicely on the swing

i emailed predictit and asked for a michigan margin of victory market, but its probably too late now

Beat - no Michigan MOV market
Variance - Will Pete Buttigieg be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1? market

Not quite a lock but seems likely… I don’t like betting out non-locks though, I’ve been spoiled by free money

Does the senate have to confirm? Should bet no

This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that former presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg has been confirmed by the U.S. Senate to serve in a Cabinet position before the End Date listed below.

I wouldn’t bet it but I’d put NO as the favorite

Maybe the play is to bet a single share on ‘no’ so you don’t get locked out and then wait for Biden to say he is going to nominate Pete for cabinet, wait for the market to pump ‘Yes’ then bet on ‘No’ at a good price in hopes that someone like Mitch will tweet out saying they won’t vote to confirm or something like that

you wont get locked out of these type of markets post election

I have takes on this, which I will share once something settles and I can get my bets in lol

Any chance these states settle when the vote is certified?

Does anyone have any idea where to check what the incoming batches in New York have been breaking like? The 4.5 popular vote threshold is going to be very close it seems.

on a sportsbook, probably not
on PI, usually when they’re certified it gets paid out, may depend on when their inevitable lawsuit flurry gets dropped.

That’s what I’ve been assuming/hoping.

There are Klob/Warren variants of this market now