Well, not a lot. I think the pollsters will be more aggressive in trying to counteract D bias though.
only nate silver was buffoonish enough to believe polling error could go either way 50/50 when one guy was drawing massive rallies vs the other. I wasn’t smart enough to max that prop tho.
They weren’t massive this time around though. I dont think late deciding/undecided voters break D often and you need an Obama like candidate, not Biden if they will break your way. But Trump could have done something incredibly wild in the days leading up.
Two days in a row without new free money presidential election markets. End of an era?
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Has anyone used this website before? Saw it mentioned in the comments on PredictIt. It looks like another betting site with ridiculous odds, though a lot less markets. I’m trying to figure out the fees now.
I see there are 2% fees on trades, and it looks like you have to pay fees to deposit because you need to use some sort of Dollar-Crypto. Which means you probably need to also pay a fee to withdraw to convert back to dollars. Not sure if worth the hassle. The barrier to entry seems higher than PredictIt. However I’m not sure if there is a cap on the markets, if there isn’t a cap, that’s pretty good.
Nate made a plausible point that you might expect polling error to go against the candidate with the higher enthusiasm due to the selection bias in how likely a supporter might be to agree to sit through a telephone poll. This makes sense to me, although not what we saw this time.
OANN is growing in reach, I imagine we might see some juicy markets in 2022.
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lmao
all of the partially insane trump bettors are gone who were betting up the GOP 60-99 and 30-59 markets thinking that Trump would flip all the states he’s going to court in, and now its just full-crazy mode
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you missed it, it got up to 15 this morning, someone maxed 12c. I’m maxed out at like 3 or something lol me. I see why though, they’re insisting they won by over 280 because mail ballots were illegal or computer software changed all the votes or some other incredibly stupid bullshit.
https://twitter.com/Domahhhh/status/1328689017567600641
someone really punted this morning, drunk or believing in a new election + other nonsensical shit you decide
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How do you see the ‘trading statistics window’??
Also LMAO @ that 850 punt on Warren
where the graph is on the market there’s a stats button you can click
(right under the rules, right next to 24 hr, 7, 30, 90 day)
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ty. so many simple things that i didn’t know about lol. i actually had been downloading the CSV file to see what volumes were in some of the multi-contract markets. lolme
Lol someone must have forgot which woman is VP-elect.
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that makes less sense than the kraken. He’d have to show some serious work on that one regarding enthusiasm candidate not outperforming the polls. Obama did twice by probably about as much as Trump did here.
ok so your assertion is that polling errors are more likely to land in favor of the side with more enthusiasm? can you explain why that makes sense? because nate’s assertion makes more sense to me so far.
To be clear, I’d assume no relation between enthusiasm and polling error, but if it did exist I’d bet on Nate’s assertion first. You are saying that Nate is a ‘buffoon’ for not understanding the relation, so you are the one making the stronger claim.
And to be fair, didnt the exact opposite happen in down ballot races (Lindsey, Ernst, Collins etc)
https://twitter.com/postpolitics/status/1328838461688832000
Wtf is happening in Michigan. What does that even mean? Can they just throw away a million votes? What happens if they miss the deadline to certify the results? What an shithole country.
guillotine
Should we be bailing on Michigan? I mean, Biden clearly won the popular vote and that’s what the contract states… But if they fail to certify by the deadline - which seems very possible at this point, there could be extensive court challenges and the legislature could just appoint its own slate of electors. Would PredictIt pay out for Trump at that point? Hold it until the popular vote is officially finally certified, whenever that is?
Who knows at this point. This all seems like 3rd world country stuff. I just wont accept the results and if you don’t make me then I won. I don’t know what happens if they remain deadlocked (which they will). It’s back up to 1.14 at betfair.
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