You’re holding Biden NC?
Yeah, did I miss an update? I had it at ~15% coming into today and it was trading at 10c. Now I see it’s down quite a bit.
Don’t worry guys Bovada will pay if Trump concedes
Sold all my Biden NC at .04 and bought Biden by 100-149 electoral votes at .02. Same investment, much bigger payoff. Goooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo NC mail-ins/absentees gogogogogogo!
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I think they’re planning on dumping all of the remaining ballots at once, but if they trickle in for various reasons, I should be able to make moves when they start coming in heavy for Biden.
Also 100-149 includes a win in AZ right? Which is looking closer to 50/50 at this point
Already maxed that Mass Dem Primary Winner market earlier in the week, but thanks.
I mean the NYT needle (I know, lol) had NC at 15% when it shut down, and very few votes have come in since the needle shut down. We need to run somewhere in the neighborhood of 75-85% in mail-ins depending on how many there are. 81.25% is my estimate based on 120K outstanding votes. I’ve seen speculation the number of outstanding votes could be higher, but it’s possible that’s outdated and I’m operating on bad info.
If the makeup of mail-ins is similar to other states, we should expect to run at 75-80% so we don’t have to run that hot to hit 81.25%. I’m not totally convinced the makeup will be the same, but there’s a reasonable chance.
I also think on some level the fact that we’re winning Georgia should correlate over into this ending up very, very close.
Have you broken it down by county? I think PI is fairly reasonably priced on AZ right now, I like our side at the current prices. I’ve got the votes split into buckets…
Blue (28K votes left)
Apache, Coconimo, Pima, Santa Cruz
So far in those we’re up: 67-32, 61-37, 59-39, 67-32. I’m looking to win them 57-43 on the outstanding vote.
Red (28K votes left)
Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Mohave, Pinal, Yavapai
The three G’s have < 150 votes left total. The others go 57-40, 68-30, 75-25, 57-41, 64-35. Pinal is the largest outstanding and it’s 57-41. I’m looking to take 25% of these.
Swing Red (2,164 votes left)
Navajo and Yuma - Navajo has 92 votes left. Yuma broke 52-46 for Trump. I’m looking to take 35%.
Maricopa (43,761 votes left)
We would need to lose 41/59 or better based on the above numbers, and so far Trump has been at 55-58% in most of the drops, with the trendline being toward Biden doing better in the last couple drops.
I’m double max Arizona now and I think it’s good value.
Fucking bovada never going to pay me my monies
Yeah, I would have held a little back so I can do my job if I thought they wouldn’t pay out by Sunday.
Donald Trump exhausts remaining legal challenges
So, they’re never paying?
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One of the major reasons I bet was because they had the CNN and FOX disclaimer
Looool ikestoy in the comments giving them shit
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Last AZ drop was solid, Maricopa at 6EST.
Apache County though. Maricopa provisionals should be interesting.
I’m basing it on what I have projected by county, see above.
If the event has concluded, pay me my money Mybookie! bastards