Anyone got paid on Bovada for Biden EC?
you’re not going to for awhile
they still have 2 months to figure out how trump “won” the election
They quickly settled all the states Trump won, of course
Why is Trump up to 9 cents? Who are these people betting on him?
he’s going to contest a number of states is why
trumpers don’t give up, they just double down
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Iirc the original rule was for a fox and cnn call.
Bovada had a freaking disclaimer that said “we won’t pay until Fox and CNN call the winner.” Now that both have called the winner they are…not paying. Bush league.
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By now I think they’re sextupling down.
Must have been a shitty drop in AZ because the price just briefly cratered into the 50s.
biden was supposed to win the batch that dropped instead he slightly lost it
I’m seeing 76?
Yea it rebounded quick. I just happened to be looking while it was in the upper 50s, no clue how low it actually got. Hooooooold.
So it’s pretty clear that I overly relied upon polling data. LOL @ me. I invested $3,200 on PI and here’s what I’m sitting on right now:
(This is after I initially bet on Ohio, NC, and Florida but pulled out of each with a loss shortly after, because it was obvious that things weren’t going as well as the polls were pointing to.)
I’ll admit that I didn’t really investigate the fee structure (which is outrageous), but I think I’m going to pull out around $3,800 or so if I wait for everything to clear. I’m happy to have a few hundred bucks in my pocket, but it seems clear I played this less than optimally.
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Live contracts right now are:
GA Biden Yes
NC Biden No
PA MOV 1-2%
I had the “closest state” contract for AZ but quick sold when I thoguht some important news came down, bought it for 8c, should have held.
Tempted by the EC MoV & Tipping point state contracts (and the AZ MoV) but sicne they all hinge on AZ which has been very difficult to analyza I’ll probably lay off.
My only thought is the provisionals are probably going to be different than the pro trump tranches we’ve been seeing, so maybe Biden is undervalued a bit.
From what I’m seeing drunkenly in hindsight, Trump got 66% in a county I was hoping we could just hold him to 75% in and the market made a huge jump towards Trump lmao…
Lol Predict It forever and ever.
Unless I’m missing something, Trump now needs like 58.6% and the sample outstanding got worse for him.
Disclaimer: I’m about 8 drinks in, but I’m pretty sure I can be hammered and pulling up data on my phone and still lol at these markets.
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This is like the 30th time something like this has happened. You don’t even need to be an expert, you just curate a feed of Twitter people who know what this stuff means in each state.
Elections are free money.
FL before the election wasn’t a big error, I laid off for cheating concerns plus the LOLFlorida always doing the wrong thing factor.
NC I thought was amazing value pre-election, and I’m holding now.
Ohio was your only big mistake imo. I considered betting it pre-election to dump for a profit after the initial results skewed blue (at which point I’d buy it for GOP yes), but I knew the site would crash and I might get stuck in my position. I did not like the value on it, and also there were other soft lines that were so juicy even if OH was slightly +EV.
The move I wanted to make going in, but the site was crashed so I couldn’t, was to fade both mirages and play for a freeroll on the middle: OH was a blue mirage state, PA was a red mirage state, and there was no world where Trump took PA and Biden took OH. I wanted to double max betting Trump OH and Biden PA as underdogs. I viewed both as heavy favorites as long as the early results were not worse than approx 60-40.
I’m pretty sure the prices fell into place, but the site was down.
Never the less, 19% roi is solid for any investment/gamble.
Yeah it frustrates me sometimes that I can’t get more money in. Sucks to be double max on something worth ~95 trading at ~85 and see it go to ~75 and be unable to capitalize.
Lol Trump up to 10 cents. JagsFan.gif