Betting on Politics: Predictit is NOT Dead

FFS

That should be insanely free money but who knows what these dumbass networks are gonna do

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Man Bodog/Bovada had some dogshit lines out there. Those arseholes had cut my limits to almost nothing (like $20 max) so unfortunately I couldn’t really hit any of these for any reasonable amount of money. I think someone mentioned that book leans more deplorable so you’ll get great lines there.

Ya I considered betting on this but wasn’t confident enough in Fox calling even if other networks do.

gonna take me as long to count up how much as it’s taking to count votes

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the first date or date range (ET) when the Fox News and CNN networks will have both officially declared, or otherwise projected, the same person as the winner of the 2020 U.S. Presidential election, such that both networks’ qualifying declarations or projections are in effect at the same time.

Tricky wording, which scares me out of the market.

LOL @ the media it is -115 on both sides now

I’m sure there’s some insane value here but I don’t like trying to predict on what the media is gonna do.

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Thanks to those who were posting about the most lol markets on PredictIt. You convinced me to deposit for the first time.

Do you guys typically keep money on the site between elections? I guess it helps to avoid withdrawal fees, but I can’t imagine the markets are nearly as terribad in off years.

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I decided not the bet the election as i was (rightfully) scared i’ll make emotional decision. Caved in when it was practically over and got one 10 bet on Biden at -300. Not my finest work, but i’ll take it.

I’m wondering this as well. Right now I have my profits still on there, parked in Michigan and Nevada markets until they resolve. It looks like there’s a lot of dollars on sale for 95c but I don’t see nearly as much free money anymore. My guess is there will be a lot less churn opportunities now, in that you may still be able to buy dollars for like 90-95c, but you will need to wait longer for them to resolve to 98-99+, as opposed to like last night when I was able to buy Michigan DEM Senator for 90c still, hours after the race had been called, and flip for 97c today. I’m sure not all of the dumb money will leave the site but the opportunities may be less. It’s worth waiting a bit to see if some new markets pop up like ‘Will Supreme Court award a state to Trump’ or something insane like that, which magabucks would flock to.

Just wait for the “will Trump be indicted for a federal crime before X date” markets

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I parked ~$2k on PI after 2018 just by dumping it into various Qanon markets. I’ll probably pull most of it out because I’m not expecting to see any more crazy indictments markets.

Trump to finish first term is at 80 and him not resigning is at 83. These are trivially easy bets, right?

regarding money on the site, I’ve had an appropriate roll the whole time, there’s plenty of markets of pure dumb that pop up here and there. That said, next year is gonna be very difficult for them and us as they got restricted out of a lot of money fleecing on those idiots and there aren’t many elections, certainly none joe q moron is gonna want to put $ on.

I put $1,000 on before the primaries and was trying to run it up. Had it up to like $1,600, unfortunately would’ve been higher but I took a bad beat on a debate bet lol…

But I dumped like 13K in this week, won’t leave it all in there but might leave a few grand to keep taking the free 3-4% opportunities. Depends what’s really available the next several months. Could be some easy money to be made in this runoff election.

Decent chance the same thing happens: red early, blue closing hard late, MAGA morons don’t realize the mail-in vote is coming for their ass lol…

No imo, if he comes unhinged a lot of outcomes are on the table.

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is there mail in the runoff? I haven’t looked that up yet

By leaving money there you’re risking they pull up shop and disappear and for a site that was down not only all election night but the next night as well that is a bad bad sign.

I have no clue, tbh. Trump is not very predictable, I can see him just walking off the job.

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