Betting on Politics: Predictit is NOT Dead

I can never top my like Nov/Dec 2019 bet where I got the field in the Dem primary and the guy I was betting got Hillary, and I only laid 2-1. EV was infinity.

NC isn’t over yet. It’s a long shot, but Biden has like 15% equity IMO.

It’s over for me because I foolishly sold.

Is there a good site tracking popular vote total and projections from where we currently stand?

Relative to the amount I wagered I didn’t win much because all my long shots missed, and the withdrawal fees being so high, and the fact that the markets take forever to resolve at 1.00. I I sold out of most of my positions at 95c to try to find better deals elsewhere.

I’m guessing there won’t be as many free money opportunities now?

Nope, I wouldn’t ever have a transaction go to/from Coinbase via a sportsbook. I always use Blockchain as the intermediary and have done hundreds of transactions without issue. Also, if you ever get to the point where you’re doing lots of transactions, I’d switch to Coinbase Pro which will cut down on fees.

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I lost on my longshots, but managed to roll some wins out at 93-94c and pile them into WI/MI/PA at good prices overnight Tues/Wed. Should end up with about 80% of my max possible win.

Got my withdrawal today. Not too bad of a turnaround time.

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I made about $2k.

In hindsight, should have worked much harder to get money into the sites. Even putting aside the live betting opportunities, the popular vote bet was a guaranteed winner.

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I’m going to be +8K or so, unless we bink NC then add 3400-3500 to that. I think several people had more than me in play going into the night, so I assume a few people made between 10 and 20K. Dunno if anyone really went hard.

Mid 4 figures, mostly did it to stick it to the trumpers. Only took a flyer on a couple longshots (TX, clean sweep), not sure why I thought this country would do the right thing and humiliate the GOP but oh well.

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Watching Bovada troll Trump bettors for three days straight has been fun. Just dropping the odds on him from time to time when there was no new data or news happening… which I’m sure triggered tons of bets from the cult. Combined with bitcoin rising over 10% over the past few days… they’ve gotta be feeling good right now.

Now just have to sweat the payout… hoping it comes as soon as the rest of the media calls it officially.

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But how much did you win? Anonymous poal

  • Well actually I lost, womp womp
  • Didn’t bet
  • 1 - 200
  • 201 - 500
  • 500- 2000
  • 2000-5000
  • 5000-10000
  • 10000-25000
  • 25000+
  • Child of parents who only dated

0 voters

This happened. Incredible.

https://twitter.com/bovadaofficial/status/1323824409673609219?s=21

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I still have money out on GA and AZ. If those hold, I’m good. If not, I’m down -_-

You’re good. I’m not like 100% and maybe not even 99% like I was about WI/MI/PA the other day… but realistically you’re good.

I had ~$5k on election night, and over the past few years I’ve had ~$2k riding on various indictments markets. I’m not much of a gambler and I expect I’m never going to wager this much on any single event, but the markets were simply absurd thanks to the Rupert Murdoch/Facebook information black hole. It’s just a sad state of affairs but an enormous number of Americas are living in an alternate reality that’s propped up by Fox News and social media.

Anyway, I’m waiting for everything to settle to 100% before cashing out and ofc I’ve got $850 on the Hunter indictment market because lol.

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I set up a Coinbase account recently to get money onto Bovada and don’t know much about them. Cliffs on them being a nightmare company?

I will make 500-1000 depending on NC, but I’m pretty salty I couldn’t place a bet on Bovada. I had 5K in BTC from Ignition ready to go when Biden was +150, but apparently my Bovada account was deleted by support. Was pretty hesitant to create a new account and have any possibility of funds being frozen. Oh well. Trump being gone is a nice consolation prize.

Why Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong’s ‘apolitical’ memo cost his company 60 employees | The Business of Business this isn’t bad, cliffs: employees aren’t allowed to “talk politics” and say things like “BLM” at work.

Also I literally had to buy and spend a couple hours making (similar to) CoinbaseIsStealingMyMoney.com to publically shame them into cashing me out. Long story.

Actually I still have the code for that:

                                    Back in 2013 or 2014 I decided to open an account on then unknown to me thieving website Coinbase and buy some cryptocurrency.  At the time
				to register an account all it required was email address and possibly
				phone number and real life address.

				In early 2020 I received an email from stealing website Coinbase
				stating that due to changes to their terms of use, I need to "verify
				my identity" and my account was now locked, and that I needed to
				provide them a) a copy of my US government ID and b) "selfies" of
				myself for verifaction in order to have access to my account again.

				I will not be doing that.  No 3rd-party entity needs my government ID,
				and selfies as verification is pointless, dehumanizing security
				theater that accomplishes nothing.  I would not have made the account
				with those requirements originally.

				I told them I decline to do that, and to close my account and send me the money in it.
				

				https://help.coinbase.com/en/coinbase/managing-my-account/account-information/identity-verification-faq
			    Terms on their own website says I can do that.

				Cue months of agonizing back and forth form letters, all with this
				eventual roundabout pattern:

					Them: you need to provide government ID and selfies to log into your
					account
				Me: I won't be doing that, close my account
				Them: you can't close your account with money in it
				Me: OK, let me log into my account to withdraw it
			
				Repeat to top.  Eventually I got tired of it, support was going
				nowhere, and here we are!
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