Holiday weekend reporting and testing shortages, I don’t think it’s time to put any banners up on aircraft carriers just yet…
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The Erins have a look at Monkeypox:
Now 10 days later we’re at 10.6K global, 928 in the US. So a near doubling globally and a US doubling despite testing shortages. Not great.
11.7K global, 1469 in USA#1. US cases have 3.2x’d in less than two weeks.
We’re about to do some American exceptionalism!
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Any idea what the IFR is for this? Haven’t heard much about death numbers mostly case numbers but I’m not looking that hard.
According to th his source, it’s a “less severe” strain causing the current outbreak and there have been no known deaths to date:
This is not covid.
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One bit of good news is that a lot of the olds in the West already got the smallpox vax, though I think monkeypox is most fatal in very young children.
The IFR should be effectively zero among adults in developed countries as long as medical care is available as needed. I’m not sure for kids but it should still be very low.
From what I understand it sucks a lot to have, but it’s not going to kill you or cause long term problems with the possible exception of scarring.
Lukewarm take: I’d rather get monkeypox than covid.
Agreed. It would probably suck more in the first 2-3 weeks but it has a lot less long term or severe downside.
I’d have said that pre vax. Now, I’d probably take COVID. It wasn’t that bad for me. And other than lingering cough, I’m fine.
Yeah, I know, long covid…, but as I’ve mentioned before, I’m not worried about it. I admit I could be wrong.
It’s also possible that a new COVID strain could change my answer.
Monkeypox could be the right answer, and I could be wrong here. Fortunately this is all theoretical and it’s not an actual choice I’d have to make.
Also kind of seems like if you are taking COVId precautions (masking, good hand washing) you don’t really have to worry about monkeypox since it requires person to person contact.
Anyone have a good handle on what percentage of these Monkeypox cases are transmitted by non-sexual contact?
Not that I’ve seen. Testing seems hard to come by and they’re focusing on people with sexual contact, specifically men who have sex with men.
We’ve increased our testing capacity. It’s still too low but it’s much better, so we’re probably going to see a huge spike in American cases as a result of more testing. Perhaps it’ll give us some more insight into how it’s spreading.
Yeah turns out messaging about this kind of stuff is important
https://twitter.com/bethanyshondark/status/1548980644939763712?s=21&t=2MitmQs_aYpgN-g3rMkcMw
At least this is getting ratioed
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So, thinking worse case scenarios…
We have pretty good data that there aren’t awful short term consequences for adults. Do we have any data on morbidity and mortality of this outbreak in children? If the virus has hit men who have sex with men first (specifically these festival like events that seemed to be super spreader events), it might be hitting a relatively much healthier population understating how serious it can get.
Also, this is exactly the type of a disease that could spread like wildfire in daycares.
You might be able to get the data from Western Africa, and then try to ballpark an estimate based on the difference in mortality for adults between here and there.
I don’t think it’s comparable for a lot of reasons, but the data there was pretty serious and afaik there hasn’t been a monkey pox death yet in a developed country. Could be it’s a virus that spreads efficiently but doesn’t kill, could be better medical care, or maybe simply a less vulnerable population.
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