Polling is massively different from 2004 to today or even 2012, so using those eras as a guide is a mistake. It would be like comparing network TV ratings in 2012 to today. Shows that would be pulled off the air after a week on network TV back then based on their ratings today are getting multiple seasons of renewals. Times have changed big time for who answers polls and how they’re answered. When you see big swings that have no relation to the 2020 election, when Biden is nowhere near as bad a president as Trump was, especially in states where Trump and Biden are noticed, you have to see the problem.
The poll that has people here on edge makes zero, and I mean zero sense. They shot too high with the margins, there’s no way that Trump has 10+ point advantages over Biden in states that Biden won in 2020, no way, demographic and population shift does not explain that at all. I can’t remember if KONY posted it but I saw some data in an article about it that said if Trump and Biden were removed from the ticket that I think the Republican generic candidate had a 16 point advantage. That’s preposterous.
That poll is effed up but it sure is sexy for TV analysts who are trying to create a narrative of an interesting election 1 year out with a guy under a massive amount of indictments vs. a guy who’s nowhere near as bad as the guy under indictment (I think I saw that Chris Hayes video showing that elections are very much moving toward Democrats not Republicans in this climate and abortion is going to be a major difference maker in this election).
At this time in 2019, Trump was in the process of being impeached and it was felt by many that he would easily cruise to re-election because of it. There’s no way you can predict a presidential election a year out and no one who is truly serious is answering questions like this in polling. Back when polls said Trump had 42% of the vote without hitting 100% people were like that just means trump gets to whatever the difference is. That wasn’t true, some went to him and some went to Biden. It’s more likely true in Biden’s case because unless this poll was something like 75% Republicans, he beats Trump again if what people claimed in 2019-2020 would happen ends up being true.
Trump has a floor and his ceiling isn’t much higher than that floor anymore. That’s why a legit third party run has a chance to tip the election this time. Trump’s not gonna get more than 47% and it’s hard to say whether Biden will hit 50% if there’s even a remotely plausible third party candidate involved. Trump only got as many votes as he did in 2020 because of people who wanted COVID restrictions gone and not because he gained more fans. A lot of people just felt Biden would continue all the restrictions and that pushed them to Trump because people in this country are selfish.
We are a year out from the election. On February 5, 2020, the GOP was fist pumping over acquitting him in the impeachment trial expecting to cruise to re-election. COVID happened, which could have provided a slam dunk win for Trump if he was remotely competent. Instead, they lost the presidency, the House, and the Senate when pre-COVID they looked primed to take all three in the opinion of many. Without illegal gerrymandering and party idiocy in NY in districts Biden won, the Dems would have won the House in 2022, as well. There’s been a constant sky is falling mentality on this site since 2018 before the mid-terms and it’s never materialized (the SC is the only sky is falling place that actually happened and it means the most obviously). I see nothing that makes me think that will materialize now. The Dems could for sure lose the Senate with this map, but that’s not a certainty at all. They should win the House and the Presidency again unless a massive unforeseen upheaval happens and Biden handles it atrociously enough to make people really think Trump is better.
A poll like the one mentioned here cannot be trusted in any way, and as the election gets closer the stakes will become very obvious to voters who will vote. A lot of the people who are ‘against’ Biden are reliable Democratic voters who would love for him to not run again but will gleefully vote for him if he refuses to drop out. He’s not at 38% because Republicans hate him. He’s at 38% because Democrats want something different. If they’re Democrats, they’re accustomed to not getting what they want and all that polling will change on election day. I spent way more words talking about this poll than ever seemed necessary. It’s not a panic point and no one should be panicking 1 year out from the election…period.
