2024 US Presidential Election (Taylor's Version)

he may just bc somebody is gonna tell him how much of a freeroll it is for his legacy… dem wins, you’re a hero. dem loses, shoulda stuck with you.

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I think Kamala could win if she positions herself as “what you get when you order Michelle Obama off of Wish”. Step one is someone needs to get her to stop saying word salad shit, she sounds like a nut when she tries to be profound. Step two is to get her to attack Republicans relentlessly for never actually doing anything to help anyone, her best rhetorical style is when she slides into her comfort zone as a prosecutor. Finally, they need ONE signature policy message. Like Obama hammered on the message that a vote for him was a vote for health care, Dems should define one singular message, probably around containing the cost of living, that they can build a brand around and that will hit voters in their feels right now.

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Constant disinformation and media worthlessness and complicity and oligarchs tightening their grips have something to do with it.

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Yeah I am very suspicious of the accuracy of polling regarding Whitmer vs Trump, or even to some extent Harris vs Trump. The polling on actual opponents is tricky enough, I suspect asking people about hypothetical matchups is even less accurate.

The grass is always greener, plus most people haven’t even heard Whitmer etc speak at all. It’s like asking about a fictional character, for most low info voters anyway. Plus until the howler monkey hate machine is revved up, it’s hard to know what things will or won’t stick.

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Not sure if this was tongue in cheek, but you do need to be eligible to be President to serve as VP.

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The bold is an important point. So many people want to focus on the perceived and actual sexism involved in Hillary’s loss, but no one really focuses on the fact that she did not present well publicly. She presented as stiff, inauthentic and out of touch and kind of creepy.

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My honest take is that it goes a bit deeper than that. Left leaning (especially young) people were told that they could make a difference. Protest, speak out, VOTE, VOTE, VOTE. They did all of those things and got what? Pretty close to nothing. They gave the Dems complete control of the government and they didn’t hold up their end of the bargain. I know, I know Manchin, Sinema, etc. But to the run of the mill person I am talking about of course they wonder what the point was after 2020?

It’s a waste of time devoting your life to trying to change a system where the people who are supposed to be the vehicle to do that (Dems) are phonies and frauds. And are also comically incompetent.

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prolly

Someone proven to be likable nationally would be better (Michelle Obama), but Whitmer might be the best person the Dems actually might nominate who would accept.

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Agree. Short of Michelle Obama, I doubt anyone’s polls are going to hold up well once they’re actually in the fight.

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People actually disliked Hillary.

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I think it’s even worse than this perception that Dems didn’t deliver on their 2020 promises, inflation is such an emotionally charged experience that the Dems are almost certainly going to be blamed for inflation (CAN’T TRUST DEMS ON THE ECONOMY!). Dems are in a constant battle against the median voter’s default vote for Rs to “lower taxes and grow the economy”, this year is going to come down especially hard on those lines.

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not tongue in cheek, I don’t think it’s prohibited by the constitution. Or at least it’s not settled law (lol)

quote from first google result:

“To be sure, thoughtful analysts have argued that the Constitution forecloses the possibility that a twice-before-elected President can hold (or at least secure election to) the Vice-Presidential office. Close inspection reveals, however, that that view misses the mark. In fact, the relevant constitutional provisions, their histories, and their purposes all point to the same conclusion: A twice-before-elected President may become Vice-President either through appointment or through election and — like any other Vice-President — may thereafter succeed from that office to the Presidency for the full remainder of the pending term.”

wrt that last sentence, other analysts think someone in that position could serve again as President for up to two years

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100%. Inflation and the massive increase in interest rates are the things affecting people the most. Whatever crumbs the Dems actually managed to get to normal people are getting outweighed in a massive way by that.

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I agree. The Rs will not be able to whip up decades of anti-Whitmer propaganda in 4 months, but they had forever to get everyone to hate Hillary AND Hillary made it especially easy for them.

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I almost made this post and deleted it. But you’re right. She did not present well to the public. Most of the time the spotlight was on her she came across as stiff, weird, and phony. The only time I remember when she seemed relatable/authentic was when she was sitting through 11 hours of Benghazi questioning and openly mocking how stupid the Republicans questioning her were.

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It’s really this. People had 8 years to whip up hate against Michelle too, but they couldn’t/didn’t do it. Whatever charisma is, Hillary’s is just terrible.

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And Trump is proposing massive tariffs which I think all economists agree are inflationary. Yet somehow that shit never takes hold in the news cycle.

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I think this is right. To me she came across well in some very very old clips from when Bill was governor of AK, where she did have a role and talked about policy. In her own campaigning and self-promotion she never seemed genuine.

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Trump keeps things extremely simple. I WILL LOWER INFLATION. People hear that. They want it to be true even if what he is saying is nonsense. They hate inflation and blame Biden (unfairly). Meanwhile Joe couldn’t articulate what he has done to fight inflation if he tried and even if he could it would be some multi-sentence explanation that people either wouldn’t follow or would tune out.

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I will be generous because I’m in a good mood today - I think that Hillary is probably a lot better in small groups or 1-1s. One thing that came up a few times in 2016 was that people closer to her reported her as having more charisma when she was not on a stage / public speaking. A friend of my wife’s worked at a think tank in Washington and Hillary was on their Board or was a “special advisor” or something like that, and she said that they all liked her a lot in that context (she was warmer, more sincere, gave people advice, etc.). Similarly, my brother in law met her in some fund raiser in NY once and said she came across as more personable and authentic than her public image. I think that maybe like 80% of her “bad charisma” is just that she lacks public speaking skills. Not exactly a tenable weakness to carry into a Presidential election, lol.

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