I usually post the video of the husband and wife from My Strange Addiction who are addicted to coffee enemas, but a caffeine epipen is a whole new level.
Trump +25 on the economy and big gains with black voters are big time yikes
why do people feel the economy is so bad vs. something like 2018?
Because in 2018 Trump was tweeting skyrocketing stock graphs and āJOBS, JOBS, JOBS!!ā every day, which obviously means everything was great.
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Are we just in a new paradigm where being the incumbent is a perpetual disadvantage?
How many people are doing better economically now vs 5-6 years ago?
I canāt imagine the percentage is high.
I saw a tweet recently that I thought captured it well. I canāt find it now, but badly paraphrased, it was something like this:
I was at a recent family cookout, and everyone was complaining, mostly about inflation and prices. But what struck me was that, for the first time that I can remember, not a single adult was out of work. Every single person there had a full-time job. And on top of that, everyone was talking about the vacations theyād been on, and the recent major purchases theyād made. It struck me that all of the good things theyād experienced (employment, the resources to spend) were viewed as things they themselves had earned, while the bad things like inflation were the fault of the government.
I think another aspect is that you can allocate misery in very different ways. Suppose you can choose between:
- A ānormalā economy (say 2% inflation, 5-7% unemployment, 8% market returns), where 90 people out of 100 are very satisified with the economy and the remaining 10 are extremely dissatisified.
- An economy where downside is more evenly distributed (say 4% inflation and 3% market returns, but only 3-4% unemployment), where 7 of the 10 previously dissatified people are substantially better off, but every single one of the 90 others are slightly worse off.
The numbers probably donāt make sense, but you get the general idea.
I think the second scenario is better, but puts the incumbent in a much more precarious position because the average person (rightly) perceives themselves to be worse off than what theyāre used to.
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What are the objective measurements that point to the economy being worse than it was 5-6 years ago?
Itās how people feel about it. Not much else is relevant.
If you want an actual objective measurement, Iām going to need a reasonably strict definition of āthe economyā.
I think its just inflation. Inflation pisses people off.
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Yeah I was legitimately hoping for an explanation as to why people feel that way. spidercrab/mosdef gave a hypothesis (people hate inflation in a way that may not be rational), which I appreciate. Wage growth has outrun inflation since trumpās presidency.
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From a month ago
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Does Biden dropping out this month and having an open primary increase Dem Pres equity?
- Yes
- No
0
voters
I think Iām a no because everyone will become less popular when under the microscope + pissing away incumbency advantage. But maybe Iām underestimating how much of a liability Bidenās age is.
I think weāre in a new meta now where the highly engaged people who always vote skew heavily D and the people who only turn out for presidential years and maaaaybe midterms are more R heavy, so Iād be very careful reading too much into this.
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I think Iāve seen that historical data shows these elections are reliable for shifts for general elections
Voted no in poll only because I think his replacement will be someone like Gavin or kamala and not convinced they do better
Throw in some sports and gambling and thatās basically my life, itās working pretty well I highly recommend it if you can.
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Saying no here, but only barely, and only because I think itās a little too late. I really wish he had just said he was tapping out after the better than expected midterms.
The Dem bench is non-existent. Biden is our best shot probably which is sad.
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āincumbency advantageā is very closely tied to approval rating - with an approval below 50 it really becomes an incumbency disadvantage. W is the only president in the last 70 years to get re-elected with an approval below 50 and he was at 48 which is a full 10 points higher than Biden and he had an electoral advantage due to being a Republican. if there was a way to run a faceless nameless D instead of Biden that would be an easy snap call.
Rent is high as shit. Houses are unaffordable because rates are high as shit. Cars are expensive as shit. Staples like groceries are expensive as shit. Healthcare is expensive as shit. Wages are blah, and people are being forced back to working in person for those blah wages.
Thatās the āeconomyā to 90% of Americans.
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