Ok, if Rep. early voting % is up significantly, but the overall Dem advantage is holding steady, that strikes me as significant, because (presumably) the Rep. side will have less of an election day advantage.
This is his overall assessment. To me, given that 2020 in PA was a tie, any advantage for dems over 2020 is significant.
My conclusion remains that if one could figure out how to appropriately triangulate the early vote data in relation to 2020 and 2022, one should be able to do a deeper analysis than Bonier and reach some firm conclusions, but I am not sure how to do this.
My dad watching good morning America. What a pile of crap.
They just had a whole segment about Trump having attracted “socially liberal pro-choice” men. They talked about if for 5 min and presented not a single poll or data point.
What I’ve been hearing at the Republican doors is that Trump and the machine are telling republicans to vote early to ensure their vote is counted (fraud cheating argle bargle raaaaawr).
I’m also seeing lower early voting numbers in my little areas, but that could also be a function of the numerous propositions on the CA ballot and people taking more time to try to figure them out.
One candidate was wondering if it was too late to send a mailer and I told her to go ahead for this reason. I think because COVID is “over” we’re going to see a higher E-day turnout in general.
Every black guy’s excuse as they don’t show up or pull the lever for Trump: “She’s not really black.” Probably will suddenly decide that the dude that just chastised them for being hypocritical assholes, that they voted into office 2x, isn’t really black either.
