How can you question Black Insurrectionist - - I FOLLOW BACK TRUE PATRIOTS
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right. iām sure everyone else has just missed that and random twitter guy has the goods.
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I am honestly astonished itās taken this long to call him a pedo, I thought that was going to happen in the first week.
some failed republican gubernatorial candidate is sitting there right now with his head in his hands mumbling āwhy didnāt i think of that?ā
ā They didnāt call you Touchdown Timmy because you were the football coach, oh wait, you lied about that also. You were the assistant coach. ā Makes me think this is an Albanian teenager. Assistant football coaches are football coaches. However, this is an error Trump tried to make into a thing.
Went to docnetyoutube on youtube, and yeah, itās a crazy person. Not gonna link to any of their videos, but some of the topics are āWhere was Barrack on 9/11/01ā and āCan we see Michelle Obamaās Adamās Appleā¦ā. This was an IQ test and I failed by spending 7 minutes of my life looking into it.
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MAGA is pissed he wonāt drop the info now. Has Elon boosted it yet?
Elmo: Concerning
this better be fake
What circles? I missed the circles? On the moon?
https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1844776342119707108
SpaceX now with half-centimeter accuracy is what I heard. I mean thatās bullshit but it was from an actual SpaceX engineer (not Elon).
Thats the same guy who said that he was going to be dropping an affidavit from a person at ABC saying Kamala had all the debate questions. Turned out to be a total nothingburger
Yeah, I think this is an important and under-appreciated. Polls arenāt physical machines where systematic errors, once present, just inevitably continue. Pollsters constantly try to refine their sampling and weighting schemes to get accurate numbers. Believing that a prior poll miss implies the same future poll miss is like Bill Simmons saying, āThis team has covered at home the last 12 games, so them doing it again is a lock.ā Bookies adjust their lines in response to prior errors/outcomes. Pollsters, too.
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There is a big difference between what āthe baseā is for Democrat and Republican voters.
The base for the GOP is the far-right. The more right you go the more they love Trump. Tacking to the right engages the base while scaring off the center-right never trumper types. On the other hand, the base for Democrats is the center-left. Think pro-abortion, suburban wine moms, ādemocracy is on the ballotā types. The further left you go the more they fucking hate Kamalaās guts and need to be begged and pleaded to vote for her. Their reluctant voters arenāt in the middle but on the outside edge. You can try to persuade them by talking about I/P or the evils of capitalism, but itās a dangerous game when polls show that 5x as many voters think sheās too progressive than not progressive enough.
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Iām sure a bunch of shit about Walz with a student came out in a school board meeting and not a single person at that meeting has brought it up.
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Ok, so if there is actual good early vote info for PA, I suspect we should already know who wins the election with a high degree of conviction. I get things were weird with covid in 2020, 2022 was a bit of an outlier, but now there is some experience with early vote and we should be able to assess what it means, even taking a skeptical eye at the numbers. I guess thatās not the case, however, because if the outcome of PA were known the betting markets would likely move significantly. Still, someone has to have done or is in the process of doing a deep analysis of the early vote that is fairly rock solid.
https://x.com/Amy_Siskind/status/1844777672758505880
Iām not discounting the analysis posted above, and Iām going to look into it in more detail, but Iād expect something fairly comprehensive. (Or maybe the current outcome of early vote is close to what one would expect in a 50/50 scenario, but I think like a 2-3% systematic error in polling/modeling is not unlikely, and I suspect that would be apparent by now.)
I would note that Harris has moved up about 2.5% in the last 24 hrs, which one would expect if there is significant inflow in her direction.
I donāt understand the difference in these two graphs.
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Registered party vs model party
I donāt understand the difference between registered party and modeled party.
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Modeled party is based on internal predictions. I canāt tell you exactly how they model it.
This looks like an effort to explain it.
But the āunaffiliatedā are only 6.5% of the early vote, same as 2020. I think a, say, 5% shift in a 6.5% group likely isnāt very informative, at least less so than raw vote numbers for registered groups. Like, I think they would be swamped by non-Tump-voting registered republicans, if thatās an actual thing. Canāt they do a poll of people who have early voted and ask them what their registration is and who they voted for and see if there is any change from 2020, or something?