I LOVE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE!
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Thereās nothing to unskew. Political betting markets have not built up any sort of reputation for being generally efficient in the same way that sports betting markets have. I keep an eye on them too, but I do it knowing full well that itās only marginally more telling than consulting the magic 8-ball.
None of this is to say that I have any great confidence that Harris wins, but Iām still in the camp that I have been for a while: that itās a bit more likely than not that she does. FeelingsFest 2024 (or āvibesā or whatever people want to call it) was always going to take people on a bumpy ride if thatās the route they wanted to go.
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The median American voterās politics are completely incomprehensible. Most people find politics repulsive, they refuse to think about it unless forced. Youāll get takes like āabortion rights are my #1 issue, but I trust Trump more on climate change because heās a businessman.ā Youāll get people who voted Obama-Trump-Harris because of how the Mets are doing. You will go insane if you stare too long into that abyss.
I would love to see a poll on how many RFK Jr. voters have him confused with JFK.
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Easily half of these morons are foreign imo
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Thatās Butler where he almost got shot. How are the normal rallies doing?
This is definitely a factor for me. The count keeps going up when I click select all before I delete.
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Unfortunately thatās probably the best way to keep turnout high, either āweāre hanging on by a threadā or āweāre starting to lose our edgeā (not ālol weāre getting wafflecrushedā or something because then people will get lazy and stay home).
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Feel like if the Democrats would just send one of the hurricanes right through the center of Pennsylvania it could put them over the top.
Yeah, itās probably only super-annoying to those of us paying an unhealthy amount of attention.
Ruben Gallego is up 8-10 points but every message I get from his campaign (which is a lot!) is āOMG WE HAVE THE WORST NEWS WEāRE ALL GONNA DIE IF YOU DONāT SEND $6 RIGHT NOWWWWWWWā
ugh itās probably like 70%
The other thing that bothers me is portraying themselves as āunderdogsā. At least in sports, underdogs are the teams that arenāt as good as the other guys, but somehow they may get lucky and win anyway. I just donāt think they should plaster that term on themselves. They are better than the other guys. They should be overwhelming favorites. They should act like they are the far better team. Why do they want to call themselves āunderdogsā?
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Not the fundraising ones.
But the ones from campaigns just talking about the candidate, yes. They are P2P messages. We use them to identify whoās gonna vote for us.
A good way to tell the difference is if one has a link, itās probably fundraising. If it asks ācan we count on your vote?ā at the end, itās probably a real person reading the replies.
This is just lovely. The volunteer that has to read that appreciates your candor.
Actually, we usually just take a screenshot and post it in the group chat to laugh about it because what else can you do. And the numbers donāt come from ActBlue, they come from the voter roll. Public information. we buy it from your stateās secretary of state.
Of course Iām talking about P2P voter ID texts, not fundraising texts.
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I watched the entire video.
ChatGPT picked Kamala Harris
Why do they want to call themselves āunderdogsā?
The psychologists tell me weāre wired for fear to be our default state because thereās an evolutionary advantage to being risk averse or something. Provoking a fearful response gets the money. Anyway it got mine.
*battleground?
However, sentiment about the race has shifted in a GOP direction, sometimes to the point of outright panic by Democrats, in a way that isnāt really justified by the polling.
Nate with his finger on the pulse of UP.
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Itās like how sports pundits almost never talked about the Chiefs in the offseason. Theyād do an AFC West preview and it was basically, āYeah the Chiefs will dominate the division again and probably win the Super Bowl, anyway moving on, will Bo Nix work out for Denver? ā¦ā
Thereās just no interesting story line for the Chiefs right now in the super-plugged in NFL pundit land.
I read something a few days ago about how the Harris campaign had surpassed $1 billion in fundraising over this relatively short window of time and had decided to stop trumpeting their fundraising numbers out of a desire to keep Dem voters from becoming complacent.
I imagine that there is also a second reason: that someone like me, who did ship a donation her way when she launched her candidacy, has seen those numbers and now firmly dismisses all of the donation spamming with the thought of āyouāve got plenty now, go away.ā
In any case, it seems like the fundraising has remained quite strong and that the campaign hasnāt prioritized continuing to put that out front in their messaging anymore because theyāre not overly concerned with āvibesā compared to other considerations.
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This is the Elmo rally. They probably paid people, did mass publicity, and gave away free shit.
Dems are panicking because itās like a coin toss whether American democracy survives or not, of course weāre panicking, why isnāt everyone panicking right now. The only reason the race is even close is because everyone flipped their shit over Bidenās debate performance.
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