First time Siena has Harris in the lead. Big jump over the last few weeks.
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nice
Got my ballot in CA. People are now voting. Just want to report that the vibes for Harris seem good and those for Trump continue to be pretty bad. The right-wing noise machine works hard to throw tons of shit at the wall to make the election seem 50/50, but I suspect thatâs not the case. Regular Joeâs, aka undecided voters, aka morons are tired of Trump just like they were tired of Hilary in 2016. (Incidentally, some of the things Trump and Elmo say and do make me think they expect a Trump lossâthereâs a level of increasing desperation).
Even my mother is pretty sick of Donald Trump. Sheâll vote for him anyway for kind of the same reason we voted for Biden in 2020 (in her mind Trump is the lesser of two evils lol ugh). But sheâs been voting Republican for 40+ years and if sheâs rolling her eyes at his shit, Iâm sure other olds are as well.
The question is, will it be enough to dissuade people from voting Trump? Itâs not for my mother but might be for others.
My super unscientific survey (conducted by reading the FB posts of people I went to HS with) is not good for Harris/Walz. The âFEMA is broke because we gave all the money to Ukraine and the illegalsâ messaging seems to be gaining traction. I feel like the displacement/upheaval from the hurricane are enough to temporarily sour folks on the incumbent, so GA and NC are probably off the board ( I wasnât really counting on them anyway, but wouldâve been nice to have). So, IMO all the pressure is back on the blue wall and that feels mighty shaky.
Main copium remains the hope that pollsters are consciously skewing themselves or just naturally becoming more accurate as all of the folks who show up only to vote for Trump are now being treated as âlikely votersâ because they turned out in 2016 and 2020âŚ
Biden should ship a few HIMARS to NC and GA just for shits and giggles.
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If we can get some to Tampa quickly, maybe they can fire off a few warning shots at Milton and make it turn around.
If only there were some former cops in the west side or Panhandle of Florida
Republicans learned their lesson from Christie and Sandy in 2012. Never ever do the right thing. Make life hell for your base and they will just vote for you harder. Help your constituents and make Kamala look good, and everyone not directly affected will hate you forever.
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Gaining traction where exactly? On one of the many propaganda social media outlets like twitter?
Yeah, at this point I canât summon that much anger at the politicians. Their behavior is just a reflection of how shitty we are. They wouldnât do shit like this if they couldnât get away with it and it wasnât effective. But no, we are fucking dumb and most of us canât be bothered to actually hold bad politicians accountable.
Like I said, itâs a highly unscientific survey of FB posts from people I went to hs with. And the point is that the propaganda is getting to them. They are real people (not bots), and most of them lean conservative but they rarely if ever post about politics on their feeds. Most of their stuff are posts about their kids playing sports, going to some new restaurant that just opened up in town, wishing their parents a happy anniversary, etc.
A few days ago they were just putting up thoughts and prayer posts (especially a few folks who I know have family in Western NC), and now the tone is full-on, âwe must elect Donald Trump because Kamala spends all the money on illegals and Donald would really help the real Americans if he were the President.â
Like I said, (1) totally unscientific and (2) these folks probably vote R anyway, but the quick increase in enthusiasm and anger has me shook.
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Seems like an appropriate punishment for reading Facebook.
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Tough but fair
Ding ding ding. I mean you could argue that some of them would stay home but theyâve been radicalized into making sure they vote, but I dunno if thatâs even the case. More likely an âoooh echo chamber yay I get to finally tell everyone how I really feelâ situation.
I have a weird FB friend. Sheâs generally hard-core lib and hates Trump. Sheâs also Jewish and has gone completely overboard with anti-Palestinian posts and hating Biden and Harris whenever they say anything kind or understanding about Gaza.
She just posted something to the effect of, âItâs been a year and 100+ Israelis are still being held hostage. Why isnât this front page news every day?â
That all said, she has bought into the misinformation that the federal government isnât helping hurricane victims and is only giving them $750 (she said $780). Her media sources are apparently a weird mixed bag.
Less than 30 days out and my vibes are waning tbh. Between hurricanes, wars, and the radical marxist communist Democratic party letting immigrants eat their pets, I donât think it looks so good anymore
Itâs fun trying to keep people like her in the party while also appealing to pro-Gaza voters.
Would probably be useful to actually wait for bad data before shaking too hard. In the same way that it would have been useful to the previous âsheâs crushing because vibesâ crew to wait for data that actually indicated that she was opening up a significant lead. Itâs been close since she erased the deficit, and then itâs been pretty damn static with little bits of noise here and there. Itâs very likely to be a close election. Nothing has really indicated otherwise at any point over the past few months.
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Thatâs where Iâm at too. Anecdotally, Iâve found the hurricane propaganda to be sticking a bit as well. Parents also said Trumpâs ads in PA have been âmuch betterâ than Harrisâ, and they hate Trump.
Harris seems to be doing the media circuit but not much actually making the news or going viral.
The Siena numbers today reduced my shookness a bit though.