Close. 91-8 Biden in my precinct, which was a 4.2 pt differential gain for R’s in 2020.
A lot of +20 to +25 gains in the more heavily Latino precinct surrounding mine.
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Latinos for trump is like jews for hitler . Quintessential proof people don’t vote with any logic. It’s all just team seeking.
https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1840273631680627087?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
#22 pollster on 538
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UH OH
And they want to be on “Team Straight”. I don’t think the GOP outreach is any more complicated than “they’re the gay party and we’re the straight party”.
I agree that Dems should do more outreach to Spanish-speaking constituencies, but I have some doubts that it would have prevented much if any of the shift towards Trump. In Florida, at least, there’s such a strong fear/hatred amongst the Latin American communities of anything that even resembles socialism, that the Dems are at a huge disadvantage regardless of language. Factor on top of that that Republican Spanish messaging is just straight up lying about everything that’s going on and it seems insurmountable. Regardless, we should be reaching out on principle, just like we should be reaching out and listening to rural poor communities.
It’s more about abortion. Possibly even more about selfish people who immigrated and don’t want others to or people who legally immigrated mad at people who they see as cutting line or whose families have been here so long they don’t identify with immigrants any more than non-Hispanic Americans.
Ya and the reason it is about abortion is religion. Specifically Catholicism. Like almost everything bad ever it can be traced back to religion.
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I’ve known a ton of Hispanic people in LA from doing construction and also from just being in SoCal. Very few haven’t spoken English and many haven’t spoken Spanish. I expect nearly all the Trump supporting voters speak English perfectly well and most of them are not fluent in Spanish.
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I would generalize this very slightly to the Republicans are the official party of Toxic Masculinity, which is inclusive of homophobia but other Big Tent Republican value propositions like Tough Guy Posturing and Women Are For Breeding Babies.
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As someone married to a Mexican and who lived there for nearly 3 years, my take on it is that latinos are, in general, super machista (my wife would concur), which doesn’t really have a direct translation to English, but google says “overly assertive or exaggerated masculinity, esp. as characterized by a show of virility, domination of women, etc.”. In Mexico, stuff like femicide is way too prevalent and in the deep rural areas, there’s even kidnapping of young girls to make them wives. I believe this manifests itself into thinking that Trump is some type of macho idol, which couldn’t be further from the truth in reality, but for some reason, many hold to this.
A second factor is racism. As with many places, white skin is seen as the ideal, it’s pretty huge in Mexico (check out their news anchors, TV stars, etc. and they’re disproportionately white), and I think a lot of Mexicans who moved here think “ok, I’m one of the haves now, but we gotta keep the others out”. For some reason, many latinos are hugely in favor of border control, which doesn’t make much sense at all, but humans by and large, are selfish and hypocritical.
Finally, abortion and religion, as others have mentioned, but I believe these factors come in a close third to the aforementioned 2.
I use Mexicans b/c that’s who I’m most familiar with, but the machista attitude is pretty prevalent among many latino communities. And of course, Cubans have a unique perspective that lends itself to a fear of any gov’t. perceived as remotely left wing for many.
In many cases, I think people just use abortion as a cop out answer b/c it’s easier to say that than “I’m racist/misogynistic as fuck, so that’s why I’m voting Trump”.
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Not true at all. Latino voters are breaking for Trump for a lot of the same reasons white people are: they often have Republican-friendly views on the economy, crime, immigration, etc. Republicans have been putting in a ton of work on the ground winning over Latinos in Texas and Florida. The Dems have no outreach and no message whatsoever beyond Orange Man Bad.
According to UnidosUS the difference isn’t all that marked:
In English-dominant households: 51/38 for Harris
In Spanish-dominant households: 64/30 for Harris
Bilingual households: 54/33 for Harris
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That will swing votes! Jeff effin flake!
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I would call that a pretty big difference. People somehow expect one group or the other to be like 98% one way or something, but that’s a pretty big spread.
Still not “nearly all the Trump supporting voters speaking English perfectly well”. But then, there’s still abortion for religious people.
We are both sort of wrong. Religion plays a big part but it’s actually Latino Protestant’s not Catholics most likely to vote trump.
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Word is LDS conference next week will provide some subtle anti-Trump guidance for the faithful. It won’t make a difference in Utah, but add in Romney, Flake, and Mesa’s Mayor, and I wouldn’t dismiss a possible effect in Arizona.
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