VP debate probably shouldn’t matter much, and I think we’re going to hope that remains the case. For as weird as JD is, he’s not going to get easily baited into nonsense like Trump, he’s pretty disciplined and on message re: economy, inflation, and Harris having 4 years to fix things, etc… For as bullshit as the whole “we made up the cats and dogs story so that the media would finally focus on the issues here, and finally they are” spin is, I think he actually comes across pretty effective doing it, because he brings everything back to issues people care about in their daily lives.
There are of course counters to the usually talking points that Walz will be prepared with, but I can very easily see JD coming away having been viewed as winning the debate. In fact, I’d say it’s a strong favorite to be portrayed that way.
The worst part of the VP debate still happening is that people will insist on believing that it matters. But since it doesn’t, even that part is only a temporary annoyance.
There is no doubt that JD will be well-prepared and is probably a master debater. Styles make fights, and I think Walz is uniquely situated to at least not get beat down. I predict a relative draw with both sides claiming victory.
Vance might win on a Yale-standard score card but Walz will crush where it matters, which is feels. People don’t really care about details of issues, they are swayed by feelings. JD is a couch-fucking weirdo who can’t let go of his pet-eating Haitian lies and Walz is a good guy people can connect with. That’s what it comes down to. In an election as close as everyone is saying this will be, it absolutely matters. I’m looking forward to it.
If the contest was appearing human in a social setting Walz crushes. I’m skeptical that a formal debate uses the same skills though. I think best case scenario is a push that helps nobody. If anyone produces a soundbite damaging to their own campaign it will be Walz though.
The one thing I will say about Walz is that the more he talks the less authentic it feels to me. It’s the same lines(which are good lines) over and over.
Yeah, this is where I think everyone is wrong (I was too). Obv Walz is a huge favorite in the “connecting with the audience” kind of winning, which is really all that matters. However, I strongly believe that if this was sort of strict academic debate, he is still the favorite. He has the easier position to defend and he is good at it.
Maybe I need to dial back my expectations for Walz so I don’t get disappointed.
Repeating canned lines that work are absolutely the correct line for someone running for office to take. Mixing things up to maximize engagement from people who are already 100% voting for you is of almost no value.
Everything is stupid and emotional, but I find it funny that a message centered on “Hey, don’t forget how amazing your life was in 2020, before Biden and Harris arrived!” still lands with low info casuals. IT WAS THE WORST YEAR OF ALL OUR LIVES!
I’m not even sure I could imagine what a big JDV win looks like. Like, what sort of punch do you think he can land that would dampen Dem enthusiasm?
JD has to run a debate on lies and racism and fearmongering, because anything else undercuts Dear Leader. He can’t all of a sudden become likeable or palatable to people who aren’t already cultists.
Well, if Walz pulls a Biden, that would do it. But otherwise, I agree, path to big JDV win is tough to see. I can see a draw or small win more easily. Curbstomping will be hard for him. Easier for Walz, but even that is unlikely. JDV is a lot of things but he’s not a dotard.