2024 US Presidential Election (Taylor's Version)

This was, of course, an unmitigated disaster for Trump, but maybe it’ll work for the guy who doesn’t have the cult of personality behind him?

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I don’t think that can translate to a big win unless Walz also falls flat on his face.

If perfectly executed that can get a draw or maybe tiny win.

Trump also set the debate bar so low that any reasonable performance by JD becomes a “win” for a ticket, and allows the media to frame it as a win when they do the comparison to Trump’s performance.

My gf says the same about Harris. Same lines over and over. The thing is, we listen almost every day, but many people don’t. So those good lines need to get repeated for first time listeners even if we get sick of them

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I prefer the repeating lines. The alternative ends up being the media saying so-and-so “can’t stay on message” and “lacks a common narrative” type bullshit.

they’re already excited

Trump also says the same li(n)es over and over.

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The alternative is also increased gaffe frequency, I expect.

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https://x.com/samstein/status/1838332055798636956?s=46

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I don’t think staying on message is necessarily going to play so well for Vance on its own. Think back to the VP debate between Biden and Paul Ryan, which I still look at as Biden kicking ass and taking names. It was awesome for Biden to lay out Ryan’s plans and the numbers behind them and say stuff like “not mathematically possible.”

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Oh man, delete this message before the riverman curse has time to materialize.

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If there’s no clear beatdown, the media will absolutely give it to JD because of the bar set by Trump and their constant want to balance things.

The best we can hope for is Trump getting annoyed at JD because he bombs, or getting jealous because the media fawns over him.

https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1838310894058500128?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

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Besides which familiar is good. It’s what’s generally preferred. It’s comforting. No thinking required. There’s a reason Trump always plays the hits.

It’s basically campaign 101, probably the very first thing you have a candidate do: come up with a stump speech. I have my folks write a 10 min, 5 min, 2 min, and 1 min version. It will have parts that you can tailor to the specific audience but for the most part it’s the same everywhere.

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Today I heard him say “She has never said the word fracking before now. She will never give you fracking.”

He does say the same things a lot. Fracking, immigrants blah blah blah

Yeah and most of the coverage the average person gets his when a candidate comes to the state. They get exposed to the local media coverage and the talking points.



of course it’d be great to do all that in hindsight, but i think the precautionary stance for school closures was correct, given that CDC did not yet understand the severity of the virus, or its evolution. of course, parents had vested interest in kids going back, and teachers had valid fears of going into unsafe spaces. but the problem with media personalities (like nate) is that they are 1) amateurs at this stuff, and 2) they effectively shape the public perception, and 3) ended up reinforcing the worst possible public reactions to solid medical advice. scientists were learning about the pandemic with the rest of us, but apparently we think they should have made the optimal call for the economy??? umm, no. trust the process, or gtfoti.

it is not really anyone’s job to help you with not knowing or doubting, but don’t sweat it, you will come out fine on the other side.

“armies - all bad” [paraphrased]