Fwiw
https://x.com/joshtpm/status/1836980305174962255?t=lUa5jSjvlpG1JM8pV5ySsA&s=19
This guy probably picked up a few followers today.
https://x.com/minisoldr/status/1836849927219294303?t=E9fpGg23EI_qcnlUrjWcvw&s=19
6 Likes
Sounds like something Mark Robinson would say.
â See you stealth cowboy⌠(@NAFOgaucho) September 19, 2024
17 Likes
So I looked into what Pennsylvania has done to fix the âblue shiftâ issue caused by late counting of mail ballots and the answer would appear to be âfucking nothingâ. Officials still canât pre-count any of the ballots, they have to start at 7am on election day. This most likely means that we wonât have a complete count for days and that for hours or days after polls close, the raw numbers will show a Trump lead even if Harris is actually going to win the state. So that will be fun.
I was thinking of building a model to predict PA result from early county numbers but this mail ballot issue is probably going to make it impossible.
2 Likes
On the flipside in 2020 more than half of Dems voted by mail, now itâs gonna be like 5%
2 Likes
Correct. The partisan divide between mail and non-mail vote is not like 2020.
I like this idea. We all should do it. Especially anyone who posted on bbv4l.
https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1836997276352315528?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
GEORGIA
Trump 49% (+1)
Harris 48%
.
FLORIDA
Trump 50% (+3)
Harris 47%
.
MARYLAND
Harris 61% (+28)
Trump 33%
.
COLORADO
Harris 53% (+11)
Trump 42%
.
VIRGINIA
Harris 51% (+7)
Trump 44%
.
MINNESOTA
Harris 50% (+7)
Trump 43%
.
TEXAS
Trump 50% (+4)
Harris 46%
.
OHIO
Trump 52% (+9)
Harris 43%
LV, 9/9-18
11 Likes
I guess the convention bump dip that never happened is no longer happening
6 Likes
You shut your Nate-hating piehole!!!
5 Likes
Nate has to admit that Kamala going from like 35% to 51% over the past few weeks based on nothing is a little embarassing.
3 Likes
Reading up on this Robinson stuff makes me realize what an advantage the Republicans will have now that their scandals are becoming so debased and profane that the mainstream press canât report on the specifics.
2 Likes
Iâm also encouraged because I feel like the real odds are ~60% and he just wants to save face by going up in a couple of chunks instead of losing all credibility with one huge jump.
35 to 51% seems pretty reasonable as she gained some small % in the polling average in key swing states in what is a very close race.
I just donât see how any reasonable model at this point in the race can give either candidate more than about 35 to 40%. Unless she starts consistently polling +3 or better in PA as we get into late October, this thing is going to be the ultimate nailbiter election.
Thatâs a problem because if she doesnât win in a landslide, Republicans are gonna cheat Trump in
Who gets the other 20-30%?
Iâm not saying youâre necessarily wrong, but I donât think the type of cheating they are prepared to do is any easier in a close election than a landslide, where landslide in this case is around 3%.