Silver has been busing in illegal migrants to fix the votes. His genius is a parlor trick imo.
3 Likes
i dunno, sounds like something his dad mighta said back in the dayā¦
https://x.com/American_Bridge/status/1836179313789476937?t=LPvRgGdTECr7hcNnygA6Pw&s=19
Ozempicād huckabeast is more powerful than you could possibly imagine
4 Likes
I live on a corner near a dead end. From said corner to the dead end are five houses. Three are confirmed Harris - new neighbors across the street are flying a big, pink Harris flag - and one is confirmed Trump.
So Harris will win Georgia in a landslide.
8 Likes
Yeah, here is his current PA forecast
Itās Harris is leading in the polls, something something random adjustments, spits out that Harris is an underdog. As Election Day approaches, these random adjustments will greatly reduce and then it will say sheās a fave in PA and therefore a fave to win the election.
I am not convinced āeconomic fundamentalsā are worth anything in this election because Harris is not incumbent. Polls and focus groups have shown that Kamala has avoided being associated with inflation and all that stuff.
2 Likes
you know you sounded like them just then. i donāt think itās because you are in a cult, itās because you painted with the broadest possible brush, and came up with the easiest answer from your pov, disregarding how it may actually play out.
1 Like
https://x.com/ok_post_guy/status/1836114426937905429
Anyone want to tell me what the āwhateverā is supposed to be referring to?
1 Like
the vox article isnāt all terrible, it correctly called liberals using 538 as a security blanket since 2016, which i think is poignant, even if it has virtually nothing to do with nate. if i had to guess, he fell into both the ego trap (though not head-first like rogan or musk), and chasing the clicks trap. easier to delude yoursefl with a math-model instead of a podcast.
covid was a weird time. i am pretty sure he started pandering to the audience based on polling, as a huge percentage of population was buying lab-leak theory, and ignored that a lot of was push-polling and misinformation, then refused to change his mind. a lot of people youād normally respect did that as well. oh well.
Thatās the beauty of it, it can mean whatever the listener wants it to mean, and he can deny saying anything. The people behind him sure seem to have an idea.
3 Likes
Do we think they all have the same idea?
These Nate/nate adjacent models (including all the sports ones they did) just fit past data then they project that forward.
To me itās similar for many of the advanced sports stats, Itās back fit but if any of the underlying fundamentals changeā¦
Iāll give you that there is a tons of more data in sports, but still the aggregates can predict some pretty weird results that donāt pass the sniff test.
I was a Nate defender in 2016 when pundits say he got it wrong. 30% of whatever he had Trump at is just about where you might see a very tight election āupsetā winner. It was probably only 30% because there wasnāt enough time for polls after Comey to dominate the averages.
But he lost me with the COVID shit. Disease does not give a shit about your polls.
2 Likes
And what might that idea have been?
I mean, Iām not going to say JD wanted people to think of the n-word. Plenty of other people are already saying that, and heās going to be like ātheyāre making everything about race as usualā or some other horseshit. And in a very Trumpian way heāll get ācreditā from the hardcore racists and it will get zero negative attention from the less-hardcore racists. I really do think it was conceived as a perfect way for him to imply heās calling her a slur without him actually doing it. I do not believe for a single moment that was off-the-cuff.
1 Like
yeah, nateās economic dimension is asinine. itās basically total take-home income for all taxpayers, which i guess buckets top 1% with the bottom half or quartile, even though they contribute comparable amounts to the aggregate. really strange choice of indicator when the electorate is basically as polarized as ever. a better indicator shows median wages outpaces inflation, while top earners are lagging (but make up most of the market cap gains).
Was Nate actually wrong about covid though? My memory is he was very pro sending kids back to school, and it seems to me the evidence has pretty conclusively shown him to be right about that.
To be fair, I do remember him being insufferable about it. He seems unlikeable but is also worth listening to, IMO.
2 Likes
I donāt know what youāre talking about and I doubt you do either.
Explain what you meant by this
What culture war was I milking?
Theyāve been calling her the R-word all over the back alleys like Rogan.
I canāt find the clip right now but it went something like this:
Some comedian I never heard of: āAnd now you canāt attack Kamala without being called racist, misogynist, ableistā¦ā
Rogan: āAbleist?ā
Comedian: āWell yeah, because sheās literally retarded.ā
Rogan: [Almost falls out of his chair in a violent snicker]
Itās so incredibly stupid. Prosecutor, US Senator, she just wiped the floor with Trumpābut because sheās a woman they think sheās an idiot by default, and itās absolutely hilarious to them to call that out.
1 Like
This fucking guy