The camo hat is available again so I got one. Not really my style but maybe I’ll gift it to my brother.
There’s your first mistake.
Trump going after that minority vote. He might declare Election Day Taco Tuesday.
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Monmouth +5?
We are getting seriously close to where the national polling data will make swings states close to irrelevant.
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This motherfucker has never heard of, let alone used, the term skullduggery in his life.
My thought as well.
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When it comes to spelling-related jokes, there are no mistakes, only poor set-up lines
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if the church’s sincere (or at least official) belief is that abortion in all cases is murder, then this pope equating murder with denying asylum to migrants is as big a win as we might get
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The Catholic Church didn’t consider abortion before the quickening (when you can feel the baby moving and when they thought ensoulment happened) sinful until the 19th Century.
Well they didn’t have wise leaders like the US Supreme Court to tell them what was evil and what was not.
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I think this pretty much sums up what’s wrong with politics.
There are no enemies, and calling some of these people cowards may be too “kind” in some ways … is there evidence that Obama didn’t change his stance and then change it again? Perhaps it’s a nuanced progression of views but “my favorite politician doesn’t really believe in the policy he’s espousing” seems more complicated than, “oh shit, theyre not as progressive as i thought.”
But ultimately, there are no enemies. This line of thinking and engaging is why politics can never bring about peace.
Put another way …
(Bob Marley)
If dem want to win the revoloution
Must win it, wit rasta!
Can’t win no other way
Because if you win other way, you go fight again
When you rasta win, den no more war
538’s latest update says 60/40 Harris
I trust Nate more than these guys, but I’m concerned that Nate’s model is too objective and doesn’t account enough for vibes.
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Economist tracker.
https://x.com/OwenWntr/status/1836045230077862040
There should be a meme for the pre and post-Biden dropout numbers.
It’s like the Patriots pulling Drew Bledsoe and replacing him with Brady. (Or, perhaps, the Patriots replacing a 50 y/o with a broken collarbone with a decent replacement-level player.)
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In the vox article about Nat he said his Harris dip of 35/65 Harris was because it’s modeled on expecting a post convention bump that didn’t happen. If he takes the expectation out then it’s about 50/50 or a slight edge for Harris which, in spite of the vibes seems right for right now. If the polls keep trending Harris then his model and 538’s model will probably align
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A thing i have noticed is that the trump signs i see out right now, a lot of them are in areas that are like near a main road or at an intersection and i believe that it’s the headlights shining into your house at all times of night and the constant inescapable road noise that drives people insane. And then once they’re insane they vote for trump
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I’d forgotten how Nate waded into COVID truthery, that should have been the point where adult media started treating him as seriously as Joe Rogan.
My memory of Nate’s progression, he nailed one election prediction nearly perfect amd everyone thought he was a stats god, instead of just another victim of the short term mistaken for the long run. Then he believed it, too.
I don’t think that’s fair. In 2016 he had Trump at 29% to win when almost everyone else had him at 5% or lower. I’m not certain, but one of the basic things I think he incorporated that other modelers missed then is that state outcomes aren’t independent from each other. So if MI was off then WI and MN would likely be off to a similar degree and PA and OH would be off, but to a less similar degree etc…,