I really don’t think so.
General economic sentiment was trending so poorly that McCain had no shot no matter who he picked.
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This is a dumb question but why is this illegal? I mean a foreign country paying to push messages that help them. These aren’t politicians. I am just ignorant on how this is illegal.
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It’s not illegal for the YouTube personalities if they didn’t know, but there are laws against foreign entities paying for propaganda or people knowingly accepting money from foreign entities for propaganda without notifying the US. So it’s illegal for the owners of Tenet.
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Chat GPT is seemingly a very thirsty furry
I value what Nate has to say about statistics too, so I’m not in the group that dismisses what he has to say specifically about that. Unfortunately, as is human nature to not accept that they have one compartmentalized use to the broader world and that’s it, him being especially sharp in one area has enabled him to embrace the delusion that he’s really smart in all areas, and his attempts at political punditry in basically all other ways are deeply, deeply stupid. Add to said stupidity that he’s really obnoxious and cocksure about it and he can be a fairly difficult guy to like.
That said, I don’t disagree with you in spirit, because I’ve always gotten the sense that people link 2016 trauma to him as if most of our collective crushed optimism was his fault or something, and as you note, he wasn’t the problem; he was just sort of face of polling aggregation at a time when state-level polling missed at the worst possible time. So I also don’t think it’s reasonable to just hand-wave his statistical analysis as irrelevant.
The Shapiro thing is totally unfalsifiable. The data in terms of a VP choice correlated to performance in their own state seems to be vague at best, at least as far as I’m aware of. As far as I can tell, the argument that Shapiro absolutely would have been the deciding factor in PA seems to come back to, “there aren’t any stats that will demonstrate this, but c’mon, intuitively this is just true.” Which, maybe? I get why people think it obviously. But as far as I can tell, this comes from the “I’m super smart, just believe me on this” part of Nate’s brain and not the “analyst of empirical data” part of his brain.
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Don’t know anything about Shapiro really, but if Pennsylvanians love him so much why would they want him to leave the governorship for a largely ceremonial position in DC?
The DoJ is bringing charges, so this is already a whole lot more than Muller She Wrote nonsense.
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Didn’t Mueller indict like 30 Russians for this shit, and 8 years later as best I can tell they are still at it, if not worse.
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34 people indicated total and 13 of them were Russians.
Yes? Muller didn’t bring down Trump, but the investigation did catch a shitload of Russian election interference and dozens of criminal charges. The notion that the whole thing was a nothingburger is Trumpy disinfo.
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Is there an example in US history where VP was governor of a state that was ultimately narrowly won? I assume there probably is, but nothing is jumping to mind at the moment.
The possibility exists, but if she loses PA and the election it will still just be a possibility. We won’t know if picking Shapiro would have delivered PA, just as we can’t know how picking Shapiro would now be impacting AZ, NV, NC, GA, voter registrations, fundraising, etc etc etc. If she loses the VP choice will just be one of many things that might have made a difference.
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Someone posted some of the vp home state history a while back and I don’t recall any of them delivering a close state or really having much impact on their home state.
I am of the mind that if they lose PA they lose PA but I am not going to blame the vp choice.
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It was a nothingburger in the sense that it actually accomplished anything tangible. The Russian election interference operation is stronger than ever. We’re trying to put out a factory fire with a super soaker and the GOP is making sure the fire truck never shows up.
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Not a governor, but many think that JFK picking LBJ (then a senator) in 1960 helped him win Texas (and maybe some other states in the south).
The if they lose PA and the election it’s all on the VP pick take seems lazy. Its all just what ifs, what if picking Shapiro caused them to lose some other swing states that would have gone Harris with Walz.
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Could have also put Shapiro at the top of the ticket. Or maybe just nominated one of those Benjamin Franklin impersonators imo.
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It seems kinda black/white to say it accomplished literally nothing because it didn’t completely stop Russia’s influence campaign. I guess we should give up on the project of law enforcement because it hasn’t stopped all crime, total nothingburger.
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I’m to lazy to find it where I saw it, might have been Nate himself, but believe the actual statistical analysis shows that having a D governor in a state provides a bump to the D Presidential ticket in that state and unclear whether adding said D governor to the ticket as VP provides any additional boost.