This is wrong just tautologically if speaking from the POV of a generic candidate and not Harris specifically.
(1) the debate can’t possibly be bad for both candidates so if it doesn’t make sense for one of them it by definition makes sense for the other.
(2) if a debate is zero EV (which it by definition will be on average) and + variance (which also seems obvious) then it would be advantageous to do if you are down by ANY amount.
I think this is true so long as they are willing to push back a bit against bullshit. Like if they start getting grilled about whatever the interviewer decides to attack them on, they need to be willing to say stuff like “we/Dems are miles better than Trump/Rs on that”. If they take the bait and start trying to explain why actually taxes or immigration or Israel/Palestine are complicated, then they’ll look bad. Voters perceive nuance as uncertainty and weakness.
https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1829181961149034831?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
ARIZONA
Trump 50% (+3)
Harris 47%
LV, 8/25-28
Listened to a coffee klatch of old white guys discuss the race today at Starbucks. Not much interesting except they definitely agree that the Republicans are weird, and that RFK does not help them with that issue at all.
Nate being weird
https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1829199791261397261?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
I see that she’s crushing.
I don’t know, that’s an okay set of polls, but way too close for comfort. If all of those were actual results then it’s another example of PA deciding the whole thing.
Yeah if these are the numbers on Election Day eve, it’s a narrow asshole-puckering win at best, and “oh wait it turns out that the polls were all skewed 6-8 points in our favor again and Trump is actually getting 400EVs and I can drink myself to sleep by 10pm” at worst.
https://x.com/acnewsitics/status/1829221648114815280
It’s hilarious how bad they fucked this up. In before SCOTUS rules RFK off all ballots.
I think it’s amusing that a lot of you think these politicians face tough questions in any interview these days. And tough follow up questions, seriously just fucking lol.
Trump could lose by 400EVs but will somehow claim that RFK being on the ballot in NC must invalidate the entire election and we’re probably at a coinflip that SCOTUS finds a way to agree with him.
…And yet simultaneously rules that Biden has to stay on all the ballots too.
fixed your nightmare
Have you ever been at a sporting event involving a potential comeback by the home team? The crowd goes nuts and thinks they’re crushing, even though these things often fall short.
Note that this is totally unfalsifiable, because “tough questions” is totally subjective. No matter what Harris is asked, you can smirk and say “Well, that’s not a real Tough Question, lol at everyone who is not as smart as I am!”
What matters, and what people are justifably complaining about, is the clear double standard applied to Republicans (especially Trump) and Democrats. It’s objectively stupid and bad that the Dems, the only ones on the ballot who are talking about anything even closely resembling reality, are grilled until they say something that is 99% true and then they’re hammered about the 1%, while the same media dutifully transcribe 100% false nonsense from Trump and report it as “Trump claims X”.
Pretty good analogy tbh.
Id be happy to bet Kamala at current vig free line. Last i looked it was dead even. So if you want to hedge your emotional position now is your chance.