2024 US Presidential Election (Taylor's Version)

We got poles

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-widens-lead-over-trump-with-boost-women-hispanics-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-08-29/

WASHINGTON, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 45% to 41% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Thursday that showed the vice president sparking new enthusiasm among voters and shaking up the race ahead of the Nov. 5 election.

Democrat Kamala Harris has surged ahead of Republican Donald Trump, 48%-43%, in a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll found.

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The findings reflect an eight-point turnaround in the presidential race from late June

:vince2:

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This is why she should tell them all to fuck off and pound sand

https://x.com/natesilver538/status/1828970943827366274?s=46&t=XGja5BtSraUljl_WWUrIUg

Yeah fuck off with this shit. When has Trump ever answered a difficult question?

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Doing the interview seems dumb when you are crushing. Literally no one cares whether she does an interview or not outside of the people who are never voting for her.

The counter argument is “but they’ll keep pounding her about it.” WHO FUCKING CARES. They’re going to do that anyway! Go on offense and say fuck the media, literally everyone hates them

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What the fuck does that even mean? “Trump aides ‘apparently believe’ she’ll flunk questions?” You can just tell what they believe by looking at their appearance? Maybe they believe this but it’s unclear? What did they actually say? And why would their opinion even be newsworthy, of course they’re going to say shit about their opponent if you ask them!

It’s just transparently laundering opinion as a news item.

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Right, and you don’t even have to be disingenuous about it. Just hammer the media for how ineffectively they’ve handled Trump over the last 8 years.

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Alternatively. She gets to dominate the cycle for a few more days.

Trump needs air. Don’t give him any.

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Shrug. I’m not really worried that the interview goes badly. A major-party ticket being interviewed in tandem at around this point is generally a thing that happens, albeit usually on 60 Minutes. I know, given the relentless drumbeat by the media demanding this very thing, that it looks to some like caving to that drumbeat. But I’d think that more likely she’s just following a conventional step in a campaign, one that she doesn’t feel like making an active choice to flout.

If we were still having to hope against hope that Biden could find a way to hang on and win re-election, performance in this interview is the type of thing that would be worth worrying about. With Harris I just don’t. Could she still be subject to unfair scrutiny about some small thing that happens during? Sure. But that also just applies generally to being out on the campaign trail as much as she is. Seems to me she can handle it.

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The interview will be objectively fine, Kamala will misspeak or have a minor xanny mom moment and that’s all CNN will talk about for days as the Trump campaign gets into fights at cemeteries and shits on decorated veterans and whatnot.

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We are seeing the natural consequence of media going all
In on a click-bait SEO optimization business model, they have made themselves irrelevant in most people’s eyes.

So the process for writing articles for Hard Drive/Hard Times starts with pitching headlines on Slack. I just pitched this in the “topical/breaking” news pitch channel. I have to be allowed to write this, right?

“Trump Camp Confident Kamala Harris Will Blow CNN Interview, Interviewer”

I only post it here because I will never get the green light for this. I don’t get the green light for most of my pitches, so WHATEVER.

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JD Vance just casually lying about Trump physically bullying an Arlington Cemetery staffer in order to make an illegal campaign ad, obviously another big hurdle for the Harris campaign.

https://x.com/HuffPostPol/status/1828956987750576600

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For the life of me I don’t get why people keep pretending that she’s crushing. She’s marginally ahead.

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Vibes

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I think some feel she is crushing because she has made up so much ground. But that is meeting diminishing returns at this point and as you said she is only marginally ahead at best.

She stay has to play ball to a degree. The media is already twisting every trump story into being bad for Harris no matter what it is.

I think the joint interview is a good idea and will go fine. Having Walz there takes some of the pressure off Harris.

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I think it comes down to what’s better for the “vibes” movement. The headlines and narrative around the campaign being “afraid” of a sit down interview is at some level bad vibes. So we don’t want that. But we also don’t want to risk giving the Trump team more ammo to also bring the vibes down.

I say take a play out of Trumps book on this one. Do the sit down, pick an interviewer who is going to lob softballs and not ask any difficult follow ups, and mostly forget that the interviewer is there and just get out the talking points you want to get out. No actual news will break, no one will give a shit if she dodges and pivots around tough questions, and she can say she did the interview and move on to other shit.

No one will actually care if she dodges a Gaza question or gives a non answer. Just keep it simple and don’t fuck up.

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Unless she’s going to run a 2020 basement campaign - which would be inadvisable - she’s out there exposing herself to whatever the coverage might want to pick on anyway. Give her enough time on the campaign trail and she’ll have some kind of flub, and she certainly won’t get a pass on it from the press.

Doing a national interview is higher risk/higher reward, but unlike smaller campaign events where the gains are mostly marginal gains localized to the regions she’s in, this is something where she’ll get a fair number of eyeballs from everywhere, so there’s a reasonable expectation of making incremental gains with something like this rather than just being a situation where we are left to desperately hope that she doesn’t lose ground. Of course, there is still nonnegligible risk in this, but she’s also doing a debate in 12 days, so some level of risk is already baked in. She’s not just going to be able to coast across the finish line of this thing in bubble wrap. Not yet, at least. Not with this narrow of a lead and not with 67 full days left.

I think the national interview is actually a good idea. I think her and Walz think fast on their feet and are smart enough to present themselves well. And they’re immensely likeable, they should be getting as much free air time as they can.

Yeah, the interview does have some risk, but they can’t safely run for president and let Trump keep trying to set the narrative. Their campaign has shown itself to be more than capable of spinning a flub.

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