Can’t they fly as planes and as helicopters?
Yeah, i know. But that doesn’t help a poll addict one bit now, does it? 
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https://x.com/mkraju/status/1826325303662186802
I don’t expect this to matter a ton, but I guess we’re probably going to find out.
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https://x.com/LarrySabato/status/1826331031408123984
I think this is all on point. The majority of people who will be inclined to peel off from RFK to Trump based on this development were going to do it by Election Day anyway.
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Or they probably weren’t really going to vote anyway, and will be even less likely to do so now.
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Here’s a small fix for you.
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1826339365808996738
It’s just one electoral vote, but ME-02 is supposed to be as solid R as Florida and Texas. It went Trump +7 in 2020.
EDIT: same pollster also had her trailing by 2 in ME-02 about a month ago.
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Hasn’t there been a ton of 2-candidate polling such that the impact of RFK dropping out should be known? I suppose there are variables such as him endorsing Trump and RFK backers selecting someone different now that he’s actually out of the race, but those variables feel pretty minimally impactful.
I’m failing to find the tweet again to post it, but I saw one earlier that looked credible and indicated an average of Harris gaining 0.3% when RFK is taken out of the scenario.
If there’s one thing Trump does know, it’s how to maximize coverage. This RFK thing would be virtually ignored if he tried it on a convention day. But the immediate day after is probably your best chance at blunting some of the convention bump. It’ll get press and some will eat it up and write dumb thinkpieces re: whether this stunts Kamala’s momentum and if the Dems blew it by not playing ball with RFK.
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She should not be on one of those death traps under any circumstance.
I was starting to question whether somebody got confused about an Osprey being used for Harris as opposed to support but
This plus code switching in the lead up with the slight accent change and shift in body language.
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ME-01 was 60-37 for Biden, so it’s not surprising Kamala is up big.
Kamala up 5 in ME-02 would be quite shocking.
This has helped cement something for me. the Dems are doing exactly what they should, which is having multiple messages for different audiences.
A song per state. That is likely to get shared by the people in that state
“White guys for Kamala” super cringe, but again, deliberate seperate messages.
This is exactly how you need to operate in the social media world. Love it
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Yeah. I have a feeling we are going to be using that phrase in 20 years
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Saw it noted a little bit ago that ME-02 was the biggest polling miss in 2020. Polling average had Biden up 2.8 and he lost it by 7. Feels like polls that purport to get a representative sample of a smaller population would be sharper if anything, but yeah.
I could see this, though this potential blunting of the convention bump is itself being blunted by the fact that the story is coming out now rather than splashing in as a new development out of the blue after the convention is over.