I think we want him in. On the other hand, the fucking nutbags who were going to vote for him may go the “the whole system is rigged!!!” route, which could possibly keep them from voting for Trump and maybe convince some others that voting is worthless. So maybe it’s a wash, and probably better than RFK endorsing Trump on his own volition, which was definitely on the table.
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Yes.
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Gtfo bear boy
No. They had definitely closed in the week before the election. She was still up, but not dominating. Looks like she went from up 6-7 to up about half that.
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Until Comey blew it all up.
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How much was joe up in 2020? I feel like it was 6-7?
Not dominating, but up. She was +3.6 and she won popular vote by 2.1. It was a low turnout election which skewed things.
2020 was even more skewed but due to high turnout. People were motivated to vote for and against Trump.
My take on the change in the past four years is that currently motivation to vote against has fallen due to short term memories of voters and disappointment that invariably happens when a Democrat wins under a “big tent” push and can’t possibly appease all the myriad interests of its coalition. Biden was largely a vote against Trump, however, so his support didn’t drop as badly as normal until everyone realized he was super old.
The switch to Kamala has gotten more people energized to vote FOR rather than against. Which will increase turnout (remains to be seen how this compares to 2020) but if she wins will likely be more disappointing more quickly even if she’s amazing. Collapse of Trump may be enough to rout republicans in 2028 is I guess what we hope for
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8.4 in the final 538 average. There’s no question that we have two elections now where Trump outperformed polling, and in fact 2020 seems like it was worse than 2016.
I still take this 2024 polling at face value and am not assuming that it’s going to happen yet again, but a person would be a fool to be comfortable with basically any realistic lead going into Election Day.
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The Brexit results had me real nervous headed into election day.
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Yes but they narrowed substantially in the last few days when Comey told the nation the FBI found additional Clinton emails on Anthony Weiner’s laptop.
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Trump massively outperformed polls because racist hillbillies had never voted before weren’t considered likely voters and they all turned out for Trump. Those are now counted in the polls.
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but they didn’t account for it in 2020 per LKJ above?
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Looks like the Trump/Elon spaces chat that was scheduled to start almost 45 minutes ago is going well.
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I’m listening to this right now and it’s just Trump blabbing about the assassination attempt while Musk periodically says, “yeah”. Incredibly low energy.
lol just noticed the yeah tweet directly above.
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Without having any particular insight into this registration count I suspect/hope that it’s almost completely due to the fact that Dems did not have anything resembling a competitive national primary.
2016 had an unusually high number of undecided voters, and they broke heavily to Trump. Presumably because of the shy Trump voter thing and because of Comey.
I don’t think we’ll see as many undecideds this time. And for the ones that do exist, I think there’s good reason to believe they could break toward Harris. Her favorability numbers are much better than Trump’s. And Trump voters may not be as shy to pollsters anymore.
One thing I learned from 2016: never ever ever count on American voters to hold their nose and do the right thing.
So glad we’re not in that position anymore.
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This is as good as anything they could’ve come up with