Over/under number of times Elon fact checks Trump? I’m going to say 2, like maybe on EVs, AI, or crypto, but I’m not planning on watching.
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ok thanks, the Alabama one didn’t have the dem/rep split on the primary tabs.
I’m not watching either, but these incredibly friendly interviews (e.g. Hannity) don’t tend to do super great things for Trump either. Letting him ramble unchecked does not win people over.
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Right, in many states voters do not register with a party affiliation, so there’s no way to do this kind of comparison based on the voter rolls.
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So Donald gets a free infomercial on a network with more viewers than ABC, but I betcha they’re still gonna bitch about Harris being friends with the ABC CEO.
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I’m glad we got such cogent legal analysis from the CEO…
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Major highly respected pollster forgot to say Sir.
A Major, and highly respected, Pollster: “Don’t let the embargo of other polling fool anyone - Democrats are in real trouble.” Fake Polls are changing their methods and standards from 3 weeks ago. Highly inaccurate (dishonest!).
Donald Trump Truth Social 01:16 PM EST 08/12/24
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Lol right? I love the pictures that come out of the three musketeers every time they try to stop the interview and he won’t shut up.
Not sure it’s likely, but I’d love this Twitter interview to be where he really lets out something awful. Either because he feels too comfortable or because Elon says something Trump finds confrontational and loses it.
The latter is likely despite the friendly fire. Everyone who thinks Trump is their friend finds out quickly he’s just an insecure narcissist.
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It’s also pretty sus that it only lists 25 states or something.
Whenever I see clips of Trump/Hannity, Hannity is working hard to try to rehabilitate the interview for Trump the whole time, and as much as I hate the guy he does generally know what he’s doing at his trade, so he’s as effective at making it look as good as possible as I expect that anyone could.
Elon is out of his element and has just decided to appoint himself as interviewer without any particular experience at it, and he will surely be far worse than Hannity at trying to keep control of the interview (if that is indeed what he’s going to try to do).
I don’t know. I have to allow for the possibility that he can help himself with one of these hare-brained ideas at trying to turn his campaign around - I’m a bit distressed that he has submitted to this idea of letting a normie start posting against on his Twitter account while he keeps the unhinged ranting to Truth Social, because if he somehow keeps that up then it could help him - but I’m not entirely sure how this interview could. Elon took the mask off a while ago, so there’s no pretense of independence anymore.
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I’m pretty sure those are the only states where voters register as a party affiliate. He has a different sheet for each state, but a quick sample of the missing states shows that they have total registered voters at each date, but not identified by party. (Because the voters themselves are not identified by party in those states.)
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I would count toward Republican numbers in Indiana. When you vote in primaries you have to ask for one ballot or the other, and as long as I’ve voted in these, Republicans are the only ones that have run competitive primaries, so if I’m going to go to the trouble to vote in the primaries then I’ll ask for a GOP ballot and vote in that. Dems are uncompetitive enough here that it’s generally tough for them to find one quality sacrificial lamb to run, so a hotly contested Dem primary just doesn’t even seem to be a thing, and I therefore see no motive at all to get a Dem ballot.
We don’t register with a party - we just stroll into the primary and ask for whichever ballot we want - but it’s my understanding that they track numbers here that way. So I suppose that’s one example where a state number could be unrepresentative. But I have no idea if other people who vote Dem in general elections are out there doing the same thing.
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Also travelling the right direction on Nate’s “chance of winning” chart. Still horribly close though.
Biden’s abrupt departure deeply unsettled Trump. His entire campaign was built to defeat Biden. Trump survived an assassination attempt, then met a rapturous reception at the Republican National Convention, and concluded that the race was won. And it was, until Biden stepped aside and Harris stepped up.
Trump, enraged and rattled, is reverting to his feral ways. We see it in his preposterous claim that Harris’s crowds, which are both noticeably larger and far more enthusiastic than his own, are AI-generated; in his resentful attacks against the popular Republican governor of Georgia, Brian Kemp, and his wife, because Kemp didn’t aid Trump in his effort to overthrow the election; and in his attack on Harris’s racial identity.
At precisely the moment when Trump needs to elevate his performance, to the degree that such a thing is even possible, he’s gone back to his most natural state: erratic, crazed, transgressive, self-indulgent, and enraged. One by-product of this is that Trump has provided no coherent or focused line of attack on Harris. His criticisms are not just vile, but witless. The prospect of not just being beaten, but being beaten by a woman of color, has sent Trump into a frenzy in a way almost nothing else could.
That the Democratic Party was rejuvenated by Biden’s withdrawal is hardly surprising. But very few people anticipated how skilled Harris has been as a presidential candidate.
It’s not simply that she’s made few missteps so far, which is itself impressive. It’s that she’s hit all the right notes, projected self-assurance, and framed the race in just the way she wants: In contrast with Trump, she is future-oriented, a change agent, at ease and joyful. “The one thing I will not forgive [Republicans] for is they tried to steal the joy from this country,” Governor Tim Walz, her vice-presidential choice, said at a rally in Detroit, perfectly capturing this point. “But you know what? Our next president brings the joy. She emanates the joy.” Harris and Walz seem to be having great fun on the campaign trail. The contrast with Trump and J. D. Vance, who are dystopian, perennially aggrieved, and weird, to use the adjective of the day, couldn’t be greater.
…
Something else, and something quite important, has changed. The whole landscape of the campaign has been transformed. The rise of Harris instantly cast Trump in a new light. He formerly seemed more ominous and threatening, which, whatever its political drawbacks, signaled strength; now he seems not just old but low-energy, stale, even pathetic. He has become the political version of Fat Elvis.
Trump is much better equipped psychologically to withstand ferocious criticisms than he is equipped to withstand mockery. Malignant narcissists go to great lengths to hide their fears and display a false or idealized self. Criticism targets the persona. Mockery, by contrast, can tap very deep fears of being exposed as flawed or weak. When the mask is the target, people with Trump’s psychological profile know how to fight back. Mockery, though, can cause them to unravel.
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Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t Hillary dominating in the polls all the way until the fateful election night?
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