This election could potentially boil down to voters upset at the price of McDonald’s, which is being kept artificially high to subsidize the Mickey D’s app. Plus some random jurors being MAGA guys. So that’s a fun way for democracy to end.
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Meanwhile, in reality, Trump lost California by nearly 30% in 2020.
What you describe micro is a left leaning electorate, nothing more.
The people moving to Nevada from California may skew red (which would fit at least with what I’ve seen anecdotally), but it sure as shit isn’t that Californian dems are secretly so pro business they’d vote republican suddenly when moving to Nevada.
He can lose the others if he wins PA, MI and WI.
You are right but it’s the Hillary firewall and it gives you very little margin for error.
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Those people in CA are Dems because they are pro-choice and pro-marriage equality and pro-gun-control. That’s why Trump lost by so much in CA. That doesn’t mean major CA dems like Feinstein or Schiff or Harris haven’t been conservative on stuff like health care, banking, and welfare reform and also very pro-police, prison and military.
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If he wins those, but loses the other battlegrounds then doesn’t it likely come down to my lol home district (Nebraska 2nd) deciding it?
Man, what a lol system we have in place if that ends up being the case. Well, I guess it’s lol regardless.
A lot of people are leaving CA just because they can’t afford it, but politics are a factor for some. It might be a wash.
Boy I’m not optimistic about PA.
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Yah, I guess. NE-2 went big for Biden last time, but looks like an R lean now. I don’t understand these swongs when both candidates have been a known commodity for years. This is worse than my 6-card PLO variance.
Redistricting/gerrymandering
The voter makeup of that district is relatively unchanged, centrists are flocking towards Trump though like everywhere else (if polls are to be believed)
So 1% of democrats simply vanished in 4 years?
They died. And some moved to Bangkok.
But I think in reality it was probably something like a drop from 35.5% to 35.4% and none of the other groups added enough to increase a % point.
Biden is historically unpopular. He is going to lose some of his voters from 2020. The only question is how many. Most just won’t vote.
Yes. This is one of the reasons that Ds attempt to promote voting and Rs attempt to suppress it. Flipping is a recent, Trump related phenomenon.
At least the demographics that tend to vote more frequently: over 65 and highly educated, swung D during Trump’s term.
Incumbents can have turnout problems. That is a reason to be pessimistic about Biden’s chances. I am on the side of Biden way exceeding expectations in office(which were very low) but literally zero people know about what he has done or have meaningfully experienced it. It literally won’t matter. The narrative is inflation and whatever else the propaganda machine has gotten into the brains of the moron class and that is very bad for Biden.
All of the people I know that left CA because of politics went to Idaho. They may also have been racist as well.
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Two people I know who left went to Texas and Wisconsin (he came back). Politics played some role in that. I think several people I know will leave CA when they retire, including my brothers and probably me, because of the cost of housing.
When you combined cumulative inflation and higher interest rates it’s easy to create a narrative that people are worse off.