That’s a terrible number. I can get -130 (not that that is particularly encouraging either).
Politically disengaged Americans are emerging as one of the most unpredictable, complex and potentially influential groups of voters in the 2024 race. They are fueling Mr. Trump’s current polling leads but in many cases hail from traditionally Democratic communities, giving Mr. Biden a chance to win some of them back — if he can get their attention.
…
Voters who are paying less attention, pollsters say, tend to be younger or more working-class, and are more likely to engage late in the race, if they do at all.
“It’s not that politics is unimportant to them, but they have other priorities,” said Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster. “Turning out the low-information voters who favor your candidate is one of the major tasks of political consultants.”
An NBC News poll conducted last month found that 15 percent of voters surveyed said they did not follow political news closely. Among those voters, Mr. Trump had an edge of 26 percentage points over Mr. Biden.
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Definitely a huge overlap between the “don’t care about politics” and “wokeism is destroying our culture” crowd.
Yep, would be better to state that as 15 percent of voters surveyed said they did not follow political news closely because the woke lamestream media is brainwashing children into becoming trans furries and ldo we’re all voting Trump.
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Battleground polling is consistently bad for Biden over the last few months to the point that outside of Michigan Biden has won a grand total of one poll since February:
I just don’t know how much polling is worth at this stage of the game. Since he won election in 2016, Trump and Trump affiliated candidates have drastically underperformed expectations in 3 straight elections. Remember all the polling that suggested the giant Red Wave was coming in 2022?
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That Nevada one is most interesting to me. Do you really think there is any universe where Trump wins Nevada by 5+?
Yes, 144k moved from CA in the last year. I have no idea what voting demo changes from that bring but it’s potentially substantial.
West Coast Dems have been conservative for Dems on the economy and business for a while and it’s because there is no viable Republican party statewide. The real battle in many races is between Dem centrists and progressives and the centrists win because conservatives have nowhere else to go.
You’re saying they don’t like either candidate but vote for the one that is less bad? They should try withholding their votes out of spite so that they can eventually overturn the whole system!
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Have they though?
In 2020 Trump outperformed the closing polls by over 2.27 pts and the polling gap on May 28, 2020 was even bigger at Biden +3.7.
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Also because California is just so strongly pro-civil-rights on reproductive and lgbtq+, even many of the people who are very conservative on business and money and not so conservative on social issues are going to be Democrats anyway.
A lot can happen by election day, but the polling is obviously disastrous. Not matter how bad the opponent, Dems find a way to lose.
I remember a narrative that the giant Red Wave was coming based on historical precedent, and perhaps to some extent the VA governor race. But my recollection is that the polling was fairly accurate.
I think a lot of the “Trump underperforms” comes from low turnout elections. Rs had been losing a lot in special elections recently. Reliable voters had been migrating to the Ds while infrequent voters are trending R. The problem is the Presidential election is high turnout.
Hasnt high turnout histroically favored the democratic candidate?
My prediction is that Trump is convicted on all counts in ~6 hours
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i think the most noticeable pattern is that Rs underperform when Trump is not on the ballot (2022, 2018, GA runoffs) and overperform when he is on the ballot
Yes, that is what I’m thinking, and terrified of.
Biden may very well win (And I personally think he will) but Trump is the favorite for a reason. All available data points to him winning. Common sense on the other hand points to him losing. It will be a very interesting election cycle at least if nothing else.
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