Trump +17 on youngs in the most recent Quinnipiac poll
Then you have NYT/Siena saying the opposite but still saying for 30-44 its basically a tie:
Saying most of the polls show a shift towards Trump is factually correct. I donât know what to tell you. I am not going to post them all but thatâs what the actual data says.
I still think itâs obviously wrong but itâs also a Trump vs Biden poll
Do you think 18-29 is a reliable 2/3rds majority for the Dems right now?
Yeah dude thereâs a difference between âshift towards Trumpâ and âdramatic, seismic shift towards Trump with no explanatory factorâ. If you want to tell me things have shifted a couple points toward Trump among youngs then, yeah, sure. If you want to tell me that Trump is WINNING among youngs then, yeah, I donât believe you. If Trump wins 18-29s he is going to win the popular vote by a lot.
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Not necessarily but I would give you like 20-1 on Trump winning the 18-29 age group by 17 points. And those would be bad odds for you.
I never said Trump was winning. The original poll that got this started doesnât have Trump winning. So Iâm not sure what you are talking about. Trump wonât win 18-29 year olds in 2024. The question is whether he will lose by a smaller margin.
Guys who cares
Vibes
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I mean 50/50 is infinitesimally different from âwinningâ but okay. Trump will not tie 18-29s either. And you posted a poll that has Trump winning them by 17 as evidence in your favor so I dunno. I think that poll is wrong.
Edit: if your belief is just Trump loses them by less than he did in 2020 I donât have any strong opinion against that. I also donât think thatâs what anyone is arguing against.
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Iâm not sure that it is? The spread of these youth vote cross tabs are massive. Also thereâs a massive difference between âa shiftâ and Trump gaining 30 points. The latter is not happening
Youth isnât likely to change who they vote for by that much imo, and youth voter turnout is lower than for older people, but it also varies more. Walz (along with no-Biden prolly) wonât turn them away from Trump as much as heâll get them to turn out.
School vouchers donât work. They kill public schools, particularly those in lower income areas. The vouchers go mostly to families with kids that are already enrolled in private schools.
For example:
A 2023 analysis revealed that most universal ESA recipients in Arizona live in areas with median incomes ranging from $81,000 to $178,000. Just 5 percent come from ZIP codes where the median income is under $49,000.
An earlier Grand Canyon Institute report found that 80 percent of voucher applicants did not attend a public school, meaning they were are already attending private schools or being home schooled.
The above quote is from here: https://www.nea.org/nea-today/all-news-articles/no-accountability-vouchers-wreak-havoc-states
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Itâs 2024 and we still have Adults In The Room who believe national elections are about swaying fictional moderates of the other party rather than keeping excitement going in the demos that Adults want to take for granted
Old scout sorting by RBI: gotta move right to get votes
Young analytics nerd, and anyone paying any attention at all: you have to drive turnout. Turnout turnout turnout.
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How it started:
Then a prescient call by @joltinjake
How itâs going:
Another 3 months to keep the vibes going.
[Gonna request combat pay for going back through that terrible thread.]
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In the hours after Vice President Kamala Harris announced Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, allies of former President Donald Trump rushed to denigrate the Minnesota Democrat, seizing on criticism of his handling of the riots in the wake of George Floydâs murder in May 2020.
âHe allowed rioters to burn down the streets of Minneapolis,â Ohio Sen. JD Vance, the Republican candidate for vice president, said Tuesday.
But at the time, Trump expressed support for Walzâs handling of the protests, according to a recording of a phone call obtained by ABC News â telling a group of governors that Walz âdominated,â and praising his leadership as an example for other states to follow.
âI know Gov. Walz is on the phone, and we spoke, and I fully agree with the way he handled it the last couple of days,â Trump told a group of governors on June 1, 2020, according to a recording of the call, in which he also called Walz an âexcellent guy.â
âI was very happy with the last couple of days, Tim,â Trump continued. âYou called up big numbers and the big numbers knocked them out so fast it was like bowling pins.â
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Welp. Canât vote Walz because itâs like voting for Trump. Sad!
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LMAO âNIXON?â Fuck you!
Welp, knock off another possible line of attack.
Jesus these people fucking suck at this.
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