Yeah. You have to have your head in the sand to not see the continuous waves fascism keeps making with the kids. It’s nearly at the same level of emergency as the climate.
And I don’t mean what Ikes types think lefties mean when they say fascism. I mean what Ikes types define fascism to be
Clearly if she wins NC she’s pretty much always running up the score. The thing is that if you win Georgia, to lose the election you have to lose PA plus any other swing state (MI, WI, NV) or else you have to lose BOTH MI and WI. Just losing one state won’t do it (and nor will MI+NV or WI+NV). Of course Harris could lose any or all of those states, but not so easily in a context where she is performing well enough to win in Georgia. I guess the scenario is failure in the Midwest but a strong Black/Hispanic vote in the South… but again not TOO strong, or you start picking up states like NC or even AZ. It seems like a needle to thread. Would be interesting to see what the most common simulated map is in scenarios where she wins GA and loses the election.
Let me ask it another way then. If not for the extraordinary set of circumstances (Biden’s condition & the likelihood that without a replacement Trump looked sure to win), are you genuinely excited about the prospect of Kamala Harris becoming our next president? Were you backing her four years ago for the same reasons?
My avatar is a mosaic of people she kept incarcerated beyond the length of their sentence in order to use their slave labor, so I’m not sure my answers would be applicable
This seems like an odd caveat. I mean, you exist in the context of all in which you live and what came before you and all that. So it’s hard to separate her candidacy from the circumstances.
All presidential candidates are flawed almost by definition, so I now can only really get “genuinely excited” about the ability of a candidate to keep the office out of the hands of the Republican Party.
Of the candidates in 2020, my only rubric was that you don’t be an old white male, so I had it narrowed down to her or Warren, mostly.
Georgia’s demographics are quite a bit more minority and especially Black than the rest of these states. Its share or non-Hispanic white is just under 50%, versus NC’s 60%. On the other hand, NC has a more liberal white population.
I think scenarios where Kamala wins GA but loses the election are generally ones where she does well among minority/Black voter groups but poorly among whites.
She wouldn’t be my first. I would be more excited about Walz, Whitmer, Pete, etc at the top of the ticket.
That said I am excited about how she has run the campaign. Treating Trump as some sort of weird joke and constantly being on offense is how other politicians should have run against him. This gives me hope her administration can be somewhat competent and aggressive in advancing the Democrat platform.
Due to the nature of our political system and the makeup of the Senate, I don’t think the policy differences among D candidates matters very much, Democrat swill be pulled to the equilibrium of the 50th most conservative senator for important things. So I mostly hope for
1.) Democrats to win (and with the biggest margin possible)
2.) Democrats to make the most progress possible with the political margin they have.
I think through this lens Biden’s presidency was a big success, he basically had a Senate where he needed Manchin and Sinema to get a justice or reconciliation legislation through. It is a shame the election in 2020 didn’t give them 53 or 54 Senators, there would have been way more pressure in terms of potential filibuster reform.
Going back to how Kamala has been running her campaign since Joe dropped out. It gives hope she will be both competent and aggressive getting the most Dem policy goals accomplished as is possible under the political landscape she’s been given. To me that’s worth being hopeful.
I think the main reason I would want the others is because they’re better communicators and could win by a bigger margin which would have an effect on downstream races and create a more Democratic legislature. Also there is an aspect of the President communicating with the American people and shifting public opinion in a way that makes the desired policy politically palatable for the more conservative Dems.
I think guy like Walz could probably sell gun control better than any of the others. Pete could probably sell raising corporate tax rates better than the rest of them. Whitmer would probably be the best at infrastructure and middle class focused policies.
We aren’t being raised by wolves, we aren’t in a vacuum, trying to discount “the extraordinary set of circumstances” only serves to normalize Trump and to minimize Harris. If we had seen some of the VP candidates in 2016 and 2020 I might have chosen someone else. Given the choices we have today, I’m excited to have Harris to vote for. For months we’ve been bitching about choosing between 2 olds, now we have someone younger running who has energized the party. Energized the party in a way we haven’t seen since before Trump. Let’s at least wait until after the convention before second guessing ourselves.