2024 US Presidential Election (Taylor's Version)

Harris just need to win PA and Michigan and one of Arizona/Georgia/Wisconsin. Kind of surprised she is not the betting favorite yet.

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She is the betting favorite on PI right now.

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I just look at Polymarket now. $490m bet. Seems it is the real market.

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PA/MI/WI could mean a tie.

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https://x.com/josh_wingrove/status/1819742110758719879

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But that’s way more red than blue

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The reason that this debate gambit won’t work for Trump is that he is going to be clearly losing come early September, and so he cannot afford to pass up on a chance to change the race.

No one is going to tune into Fox News on September 4th to watch Trump do a town hall or give a stump speech.

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That is a solid statement.

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Would you settle for Charli and Billie doing the Guess Remix together? That’s a banger

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the media will frame it as kamala is dodging trump

ok

On the other hand I think the GOP has clearly won the last 20 years so I’m not sure what that says about Dems that they win almost every election for 2 decades and lose this much ground. Vote harder i guess.

There was a lot of damage done by the GOP’s focus and execution on state level politics. Gerrymandering the hell out of purple states like MI, WI, NC, etc.

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Absolutely! That’s not even settling :sunglasses:

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I think its good politics from both of them. Trump can use this to get the focus off weird JD Vance and his claims of being the real black candidate(hasn’t quite happened yet but it’s coming explicitly).

Trump gets the ability to say well Harris won’t debate me and dummies including the NYT will lap it up. Harris is doing exactly what she should by saying I’ll be at the originally agreed upon debate.

I also actually do think Trump has a legitimate gripe that a debate should be renegotiated now that it isn’t against sleepy Joe. I mean clearly whatever contract they had is way out the window now and if this was some contract dispute where Kamala’s side was suing over non-perormance she would never win. Arguably Trump had the better argument in that hypothetical with Joe not just refusing to debate Trump but exiting the race entirely. Trump is actually right that he spent a lot of time and energy competing against the wrong guy. Obvious that’s tough shit in general Donnie.

I think this strategy is better for Trump than the two alternatives for him which is to just duck the debate entirely or appear at the original debate. MSM is already falling for it hook line and sinker.

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She should say that she’s agreed to debate Trump on MSNBC with Rachel Maddow moderating on September 3rd.

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Which the Dems didn’t effectively compete with. It’s a bizarre situation where the Dems get more votes literally every election since most of us were in high school or college and during that time period we lose Roe, we lose AA, and we are one election loss away from catastrophe.

It takes a lot of negligence at best on behalf of the Dems for that to happen. They willfully didn’t fight back and basically were doing politics within the system they wished they had rather than the one they actually had. It’s really gross imo.

And we saw a huge chunk of people doing that with regard to Joe dropping out. We can’t do it because of norms! We can’t take Joe off because his replacement won’t be on the ballots(not even true). Delegates should vote for Joe regardless of what is best and the fact he wasn’t even really chosen by the electorate in 2024!

To the Dems credit they actually did the hard thing this time. Really for the first time I can remember. And it was mostly because they were forced to by public outcry and the donors abandoning Joe. They were full steam ahead hiding Joe Biden’s corpse and getting blown out in the election absent those two things. And look what happens. The Dem voters starved for their team to actually do literally anything to fight back are going nuts in a way we haven’t seen since 2008. The Dems have literally suppressed their own voters through willful inaction for 20+ years while the country burns.

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Holy shit they actually think this is clever and are running with “Chicken-mala Harris.”

https://x.com/DawnsMission/status/1819759530064187503

Isnt NE 2 much more in play with a rust belt win than not? I thought they went pretty hand in hand