2024 US Presidential Election (Taylor's Version)

Good to hear. I’m way more pessimistic. Luckily we’ve dodged some bad outcomes in elections in Europe lately (Poland, France, Britain), which keeps EU on track for now at least.

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It looks like those are just the most populous states,so it would be more interesting to see new registrations as a percentage of existing registrations or 2020 turnout in each state

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yeah but the difference is Pence did the “bad” stuff after trump tapped him, and he’s already off the team

all of the people he called geniuses at one point and then idiots later follow that pattern. he’s not going to dump vance because that would mean admitting that he should have known better at the time he made that decision. Just like Kav. He’s gonna stick with this guy and ram it through.

I have moved very significantly to your position over the past few years but I still don’t think this is totally fair. While the dems are mostly awful, I am not convinced incrementalism is due to the dems. It’s your entire system. The only branch in your system that can enact massive wholesale change is SCOTUS. Every other branch can only operate via incrementalism up to and including POTUS.

This is why the right was so smart to realize this and the left is still so stupid to not be focusing almost exclusively on SCOTUS. If you don’t have it everything else is almost meaningless if your goal is actual massive institutional change.

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No. Trump is done.

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In my dealings with the casual Fox News crowd, they are not yet at all shook and remain completely sure Trump will win. Some idiot at a work town hall this week asked how the company will benefit from a 2nd Trump administration LOL

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The tragic death of the Republican Party

  • 2012 Riverman
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What a horrid question to ask at the workplace, how dare workers/companies mentally prepare for a 50/50 outcome……calm down there bucko, seems like a reasonable question to ask, yes?

https://x.com/usa_polling/status/1816998724410761220?s=46&t=XGja5BtSraUljl_WWUrIUg

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The lunatics have had four years to plan better tactics to subvert the election. Prior to election day I would be surprised if they don’t do things like attack/disrupt polling places, hijack ballot drop-offs, etc. After election day I assume that MAGA governors and legislatures will refuse to certify results and declare massive fraud. If we’re just waiting on counting I think we’ll be very lucky.

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I mean, he was right? The 2012 GOP is long gone, Trump just like did the vulture capitalist move of buying the trademarks from the rotting corpse and re-launching with an all new menu

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It does feel especially crucial that there are Dem governors in MI/WI/PA/NC/AZ and that Brian Kemp’s 2020 record doesn’t suggest that he’ll cooperate in trying to steal GA if Harris wins that state. Under that electoral count reform act they passed, I think governors would have to play ball for any steal attempts involving false slates of electors, etc. But yeah, certainly even in a good scenario where Harris wins, we’re going to have to watch a whole push to at least try to steal it. Resting entirely easy in a good result on election night isn’t happening; the best we can hope to leave that night with is optimism.

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This is all happening and more. No chance we know who won for months. Even local election boards have been overrun with MAGA nuts. There is going to be endless delays, multiple electors, states that won’t certify, congress will investigate, every court in the land will make nationwide rulings blocking every part of the process, SCOTUS will back it all up.

And this isn’t mentioning the very high likelihood of violence.

Honestly, I’m not sure if Kamala getting the most votes isn’t the easy part.

It’s all going to make Jan 6 and the 2020 election look like a model of democracy.

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Sorry Megan, this is exactly who you are.

Just like when they claim we don’t ration healthcare in the US. We do, it’s just based on wealth.

I think this is an inaccurate, forgiving depiction of pre-trump gop

All these really need the delta from the last poll imo

Need Drake to put a big bet on Trump winning the election

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Counterpoint, they had 4 years to prepare 4 years ago as well and all they wound up doing was bankrupting Rudy.

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