https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1816942840779538749
FWIW, this is a 44-44-6-1-1 poll when the third parties are included, so Harris does improve when the third-party candidates are dropped from this one.
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Have fun bro
I am eager to see just how bad Vance will be as a VP pick. Worse than or equal to Palin?
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Just an aside but Grindr usage went up in Milwaukee by 175% during the Republican convention.
Who knows. Not really a legal question as you point out.
But abortion is legal in a bunch of states currently, and nothing currently in place would prevent a national right to abortion.
Anyone knows how high it goes up during the DNC? Iād expect a similar bump.
So basically weāre not going to sleep for a few days after the election while they count votes.
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In my mind trump now hates Vance with a burning passion and will talk to him even less than pence.
Kinda doubt heās catching Palin. Being off-putting and extreme probably canāt compete with being incompetent and extreme, and for all the bad Vance brings, heās not going to trip on a question like āname any newspaper.ā
McCainās age seemed like it made it a more credible threat to people that she would actually become POTUS too. Yes, McCain was six years younger then than Trump is today. But the aesthetic cheats Trump uses have been invaluable in not really letting the public fixate on āoldā as a defining trait of his. McCainās disability made him seem even older than he was.
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Grindr will likely announce those results during/after the dem convention. I expect it will go up as well.
On the other hand, McCain was very likely losing anyway.
If VP candidates matter (and Iām not sure how much - or even if - they do), Vance might be worse from a win probability added perspective.
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I kinda think hers will continue to improve
I do agree with this. Purely from a results-based perspective, McCain was throwing a hail mary into triple coverage instead of just dinking it downfield to start a hook and ladder that works out basically never. This Vance pick just looks like a totally unforced error from a position of relative strength.
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Vance is definitely a stupid pick, and whether intentional or not it worked out well for Biden to wait to drop out until after the RNC.
I would also add that the next 4 years particularly matter on climate action.
This is not a āso long as we get thereā problem.
Itās a āhow fast do we accelerate and when do we startā problem.
4 years of backwards from Trump has a significant chance of changing whether we stay below 2 or start hitting irreversible tipping points and pushing on to 3 or 4 or 5.
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