2024 US Presidential Election (Taylor's Version)

Kinda glad the TikTok ban got folded in with a bunch of other chaotic stories in the news, would have been much worse if we had a whole cycle focused on it.

I donā€™t think the deadline is until next year, so maybe he loses the next election.

Gonna be pushed beyond that in court.

Correct. The current deadline isnā€™t until January 2025, and there a number of administrative or legal things that could delay it further. Iā€™m sure there will be ads and chatter about it during the campaign, but I think that part could kinda help Biden. He gets to be rhetorically ā€œstrong on Chinaā€ but folks wonā€™t actually have something concrete taken away from them. Of course, if China (a) thinks killing Tik Tok would be really bad for Biden and (b) wants Trump to win, I guess they could just shut down ahead of the deadline.

The party of personal responsibility at work.

National Lampoonā€™s Republican Party

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This feels like a reason to have optimism.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1788044129663852646?t=ZapHCOy712Ua6Fw6DA4k-g&s=19

some general comments:

from those who remember the economy:

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No wars, we werenā€™t in Afghanistan

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Those 4 years under Trump were pure bliss. Gas and groceries were affordable plus Trump didnā€™t kill 7 figures with his covid policies or gas people during all of the Biden/Floyd protests. LAW AND ORDER

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https://twitter.com/tarapalmeri/status/1789723209635340546?t=aZdCjU2ta_ex8Y27aIpx1w&s=19

Iā€™m not buying this at all.

Thinking about this more Iā€™m confident itā€™s total bullshit. The generation of therapy talk, 1000 genders and sexual orientations, trans rights, and Taylor swift are watching 2:1 trump videos on TikTok. Zero chance.

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I think the statistic is telling us there is almost zero pro-biden tiktok content

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There can be a 2:1 ratio in number of videos without there being anywhere near a 2:1 ratio in number of views. They may also count anti-Biden as pro-Trump.

The findings are mostly unchanged since the last series of Times/Siena polls in battleground states in November. Since then, the stock market has gained 25 percent, Mr. Trumpā€™s criminal trial in Manhattan has started, and the Biden campaign has unleashed tens of millions of dollars in advertisements across the battleground states.

The polls offer little indication that any of these developments have helped Mr. Biden, hurt Mr. Trump or quelled the electorateā€™s discontent. Instead, the surveys show that the cost of living, immigration, Israelā€™s war in Gaza and a desire for change continue to be a drag on the presidentā€™s standing. While Mr. Biden benefited from a burst of momentum in the wake of his State of the Union address in March, he continues to trail in the average of national and battleground state polls.

I believe this. I donā€™t politic on tiktok but over time there has been more pro trump stuff I have seen simply because there is no pro Biden stuff at all.

The article is interesting as far as it goes, but thereā€™s 70 million Gen Z Americans. 3 of them from North Carolina may or may not be very representative.

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As the article points out this is just naked selection bias.