Where are the pills goddammit I need polls
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Oof, could not possibly agree with this less. The reason abortion is a good issue is specifically because Trump shook up the status quo. Most voters donāt like abortion but also donāt like terrible things happening to women in impossible positions. The safe/legal/rare formulation basically captures this, and is the right message to win moderates in swing states. The message that turns out the base is something like āabortion is healthcareā or āabortion rights are human rights.ā That might run up the score in blue states, but itās not a winner for religious black or Hispanic voters, or non religious midwestern whites with a dislike of āradical leftism.ā
Project 2025 is a potent issue too, because it really captures the idea that even if you think criticisms of Trump as a fascist are overblown because he winks when he talks about doing fascism, heās in bed with a bunch of Stephen Miller-type ideologues who have a radical agenda to screw everything up. The counter to that is not āwe have a totally different agenda to make different radical changes, but good.ā Itās ālife under a Harris admin is exactly like it is today, except weāll make all the stuff everyone agrees is bad (inflation, deindustrialization, crime) get better.ā
The base needs to be satisfied with beating Trump and seeing a woman of color as president. Harris needs to have a ruthlessly disciplined message of normie-friendliness.
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Polling data on Project 2025 is really sexy:
https://x.com/jessefferguson/status/1815717285782331529?s=46&t=9xanL2tZoKj22erGoTuL4A
Ignore Democrats, who obviously wonāt approve of this. The wild numbers are for independents (i.e., self-hating Republicans) and non-MAGA Republicans. The headline unfavorability number is bad enough, but itās worse when you realize that, when asked about Project 2025, the majority of respondents say āWTF are you talking about?ā Among Repubs/independents who have heard of it, itās like 50 points underwater. Itās an awesome wedge issue, which you hammer home by saying āthis is crazy, you know itās crazy, and you can safely vote for me to stop it because I want things to stay basically the same, just a little better.ā
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https://x.com/kaitlancollins/status/1815558325280317725
I watched this clip and my reaction was, āOkay, I donāt think this guy has the juice.ā He seems to otherwise be getting positive reactions? The line in the caption is one where I can obviously understand workshopping it, but it should have hit the cutting-room floor after a realization that itās going to come across as unnatural and hacky, even more so out of a human voice than on paper.
Obviously one TV hit is not everything, and a Dem who wins statewide in KY has obviously accomplished something (even if it was aided by him being a legacy name in KY politics), but my first impression is that Harris should look elsewhere for VP.
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Yeah I agree that was awkward. But maybe boring and awkward is OK for this position.
Itās the type of line that I think could play okay in a VP convention speech if the person was coached on their delivery and did it better than Beshear did above. While a VP choice usually doesnāt matter, I do think JD Vance looks increasingly like a gift to the Dems, and Iād hate for them to squander it by picking Tim Kaine 2.0.
Initial impulse is that Mark Kelly should be the guy, and we just deal with the long-term consequences to his AZ Senate seat if and when that ticket wins. But Iām not married to that position.
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Beshear is something of a nepotism guy in KY, thatās true. He wouldnāt win in a different red state just like Romney being governor of Massachusetts wasnāt some sign he was going to clean up in swing states.
The more I thank about it, I keep circling back to Pete. Every Senate seat and purple state governorship is just too valuable if Kamala is to accomplish anything meaningful after getting elected. And VP pick isnāt going to move the needle that much unless theyāre a Palin level incompetent, which we know Pete isnāt. Pete is a better public speaker and defender of the Biden administrationās track record than anyone else who has a hat in the ring (assuming Whitmer is out).
Whitmer is out. She said sheās going to co-chair the campaign and has no interest in VP.
Yeah I believe that to be the case (she really has no interest), but others have been out and come back in before so wanted to qualify my statement
Hopefully she just campaigns aggressively in Michigan, she can do that without being VP.
If offered a Trump loss and a 2026 Dem Senate loss right now after two more years of a Dem Senator appointed by the Governor during a hypothetical Harris term, Iām sure that all of us are snap-calling. Itās fair to counter that the VP choice may not matter that much anyway, but this is one instance where Iām fine with leaning into short-term thinking.
If it were Kelly, I also donāt assume the Dem would lose the seat in 2026. The AZ GOP putting up people like Lake and Masters in recent significant elections doesnāt exactly make me think they have a row of electoral assassins on their bench for the next run.
Pete is an absolute master at the talk-show messaging, so Iād be happy to back him if thatās where Harris decides to look, but I also think he can be deployed for that purpose even if heās not the nominee.
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https://x.com/kylegriffin1/status/1815750121532858725
If Whitmer was actually closed off to the idea then I assume that she would have shut it down privately and her name never gets into this leak, so itās probably not out of the question.
Looks better on paper than the delivery came across.
NO.
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I know next to nothing about Mark Kelly so I googled him and this is one of the first pics
I donāt hate it!
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I think āmost votersā is where the rubber meets the road here, isnāt it something like two-thirds of the country thinks abortion should be generally legal? Itās an overwhelming majority
my main counter to your post is just that the electorate isnāt static. Abortion is the biggest issue that turns non-voters into voters. This is what has happened in every state where abortion has been on literal ballots via ballot initiatives. People come and vote for the first time, specifically women
flipping moderates is awesome but itās easier to mobilize quiescent support
A friend pointed out how bland most of these vp options are when they actually have to say anything.
Hereās Cooper in an interview with a local reporter from back in December:
Shapiro while he was campaigning about a year ago:
Walz at his state of the state address:
Kelly may be the best of the bunch at this. Here he is on MSNBC vs Tuberville:
guess none of these guys is going to do damage, which is largely the point
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This is like literally the only thing I know about Mark Kelly
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Trump is done
Kids going to get to elect a black female president.
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