is literally anyone using “nate said so” as the reason joe should drop out?
Nate isn’t a pollster, he’s a poll averager
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I have high confidence that neither Thiel nor anyone else has any influence over Nate. This is just slander and likely complete bullshit from “Lurie Daniel Favors Esq”.
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right, but what I’m saying is that the tweet theory was that the “replace biden camp” ALSO wants to pass Harris over, but the actual delegates who will be doing the voting are not in that “replace biden camp” (there probably are a few, but mostly these are #TeamJoe type people)
Not that this really is relevant DIRECTLY in the context of that tweet but it does fit the pattern of “person criticizing nate on twitter actually doesn’t even understand what he does”
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He’s been adding to the clamour. Theil must like that.
Thiel wants nothing more than for Biden to stay in the race.
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From what I’ve seen, that’s mostly true. Well, the first part. the second part is definitely true. I don’t think we’re married to Biden, but we do understand what being a pledged delegate entails.
Yes, there are some true joe Biden stans in the delegation, and they would definitely be sad/angry if he dropped out. Me, I’m just fucking tired and would be even more tired if he dropped out because that just means a fuckton more work in the face of complaints from everyone who didn’t get their way (Biden stans PLUS fans of whoever isn’t Harris). Plus blame for a loss.
Because after watching these cycles happen a lot, I would like to remind you that any candidate’s best approval numbers/polling comes right after they get in the race. Then the rabid media starts piling on and all of a sudden your great hope is underwater and you’re wondering what the fuck is happening.
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His takes stray pretty far from the poll-averaging.
Truth is a defense? The tweet is factually correct afaict and that person did not write the yahoo finance story. Even if Nate is 100% his own man he can still be useful to Theil.
So Theil’s Founder’s Fund is one investor in Polymarket, which has hired Nate as a consultant. There’s a bit of a gap between that and “Nate takes his marching orders from Peter Theil.” The second is just lazy conspiracy thinking.
Founded in 2020, Polymarket has raised a total of $70 million from investors including Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund (which was an early investor in CoinDesk’s parent company Bullish) and Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin.
Nate basically told ABC/ESPN to shove off because he did not want to do whatever they wanted him to do and is now basically independently wealthy through substack subscriptions. I doubt Theil is somehow his puppet master because an investment fund managed by Theil invests in some company Nate has a consulting gig with.
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Pelosi’s PredictIt account is about to make some serious coin.
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Not clicking through and maybe they did address this in another tweet or something, but you pretty obviously need a “less likely” option due to symmetry here. Or a separate “less likely” and no impact question.
The ideal thing would be to first weaken Biden with calls to get out then once that’s done, change the tune.
I’m not saying Nate is taking orders but you don’t have to give explicit orders and you don’t need a conspiracy to exert influence. I will have slightly less confidence in what Nate says.
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This is Nate from Nov. 2023.
Although you can speculate on why Biden’s numbers are so mediocre with younger Americans, one explanation is staring us in the face, which is that 78 percent of under-30 voters in the poll say Biden is “just too old to be an effective president” (48 percent say the same of Trump). And of course, voter concern about Biden’s is a pattern that has manifested itself across a lot of polls. It’s not an issue that will go away; Biden is 80 and will turn 81 later this month. He’s a big historical outlier; Biden was older at the start of his term than any prior president had been at the end of their presidency.
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Can someone explain this to me? When I was trying to explain to my Copium-imbibing MIL that Biden has very little chance, she told me, “that’s not what 538 says!”. And, she’s right? What is this? The associated polling doesn’t seem to back it up.
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I think you’re saying this indicates genuine introspection and Nate really believes what he is saying about Biden’s age and he’s been consistent about that? Ok but if I’m not crazy it was also consistent with the GOP Biden narrative going back to then and before. So whatever his motivations and intentions, he was useful to them. With this new association, I can’t help be ever so slightly more skeptical of things he says.
My head says it’s irrational to talk about replacing Biden. But my gut won’t stop asking questions.
My head (now) says Biden needs to get out. But my gut is churning. And if Biden does go, which seems likely, and our prospects don’t improve, I’ll probably be second guessing why I thought he should get out.
Biden is old, sure. But questions about age, or competence, or problems communicating, or walking, or keeping his mouth shut when he’s not talking seem to be proxies. For what, I don’t know exactly. Like do most people really have any idea what it takes or means to be an effective president? Because I’d have to say that even though I haven’t agreed with or liked many things he’s done, by most objective measures Biden has been an effective president. It doesn’t seem to matter. I don’t believe the reason boils down to age.
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If Biden drops out I’m begging everyone to get on board with whomever replaces him under whatever process occurs. If everybody just switches to “that wasn’t done right” and “this person is worse than Biden!” I’m going to lose my mind. Which I guess is part of the reason I want an easy handover to Harris, but I guess there’d be a fair amount of complaining then too.
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