If the polls were bad for no discernible reason, this would make sense. But its not a secret why the polls are bad: people have lost confidence that Biden can do the job.
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https://www.reddit.com/r/BlackPeopleTwitter/comments/1e6bhhk/step_down_biden_by_the_usual_suspects/
ETA: I misread this and need to go to the Derek Zoolander Center for Kids Who Canāt Read Good.
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Sure, but you canāt just assume this train wreck last minute replacement wonāt be worse.
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People have stronger feelings about this than are justified. These statements are just not true.
wen coup?
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We donāt need certainty! Iām honestly baffled by microbet and devil here, as theyāre usually great posters.
I hate hate hate doing gambling analogies but man this is like a perfect spot for it. Weāre all-in preflop holding 83o or something and we have an opportunity to trade it in for another hand and weāre like well I dunno maybe a bunch of 8s will show up, completely unknowable, itās 50/50 either we win or we donāt so we better do nothing.
Like, do I know for sure that dropping Biden will turn out well? No. But I know for sure that itās the right move given the evidence.
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It could well be worse, but I think in expectation itās better. Plus I think Biden would actually be doing the right thing by deciding not to run again (although it would have been better for him to make that decision much sooner).
No you donāt. You might be right, but you canāt be certain. A poker analogy is bad because itās easy to calculate equity in poker and itās impossible here. We donāt even know whether we are holding 83o or J8s.
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Eh I think with Joe we are holding a bottom 20% hand period and with kamala we can gamble up to maybe a top 50% hand or still end up in 20%, with Whitmer or someone we could possibly end up with a 80% hand or a 20%
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Of course we know the replacement can be worse. But itās a chance worth taking.
The case for removing Joe Biden is:
-He isnāt competent to be president anymore.
-He is incredibly unpopular amongst pretty much every demographic you can come up with.
-Contrary to the people talking about coups the only reason he is the 2024 nominee was a sham primary process.
-This election is immensely important. Especially to non-white people and women.
-All evidence we currently have says he likely has almost no chance to win the election. Including running 10+ points behind Democratic Senators in all of the battleground states.
-He canāt come back because aging doesnāt work like that. He can only get worse. And everyone has already witnessed what Joe Biden is like in 2024 and we all agree we dont like it and itās not acceptable.
-And most importantly Trump and the GOP desperately want Biden to stay in. Itās blatantly obvious to anyone not blinded by loyalty or gambling interests he is a doomed candidate.
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Totally fair and I think you might be right. Harris is probably the replacement and if she had not been shut down so hard in the primary, Iād be pretty confident sheād do better than Biden at this point. Now? Dunno. We can only hope. And I donāt love saying that because the prosecutor is very very far from my first choice for POTUS.
Also, this isnāt just based on the debate. Sure it was the catalyst for everything. But if Biden had been able to show that it was just a bad night and that heās still sharp, I think most people would be willing to accept that. Unfortunately it didnāt happen.
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Oh yeah. The debate just showed how many people had their heads in the sand (up their asses), including all of us.
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If anything the poker analogy is that Biden is just blinding out. No matter how bad of a poker player Kamala or whoever is maybe they sunrun the election/donkament.
It gives us some chance.
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I have no problem with anyone estimating the chances differently, but the assumption that someone can only disagree because they are insincere, or a traitor, or even dumb is ridiculous. The situation is far from clear cut.
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Worth also pointing out that the fact that the current Vice President also happens to be the biggest bust of the 2020 primaries is also a testament to Bidenās decision making.
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I mean i didnāt say any of those things but I also havenāt seen anyone make a rational case why Joe Biden should be the nominee over 100 days out from the election when its clear at a bare minimum he is diminished?
Because norms? Because Joe deserves it because he beat Trump in 2020? What is the good argument that he should be the nominee? He isnāt the choice of the voters anymore. Kamala is. He would get destroyed in an actual primary in 2024. Do we believe in democracy or norms?
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The problem with poker analogies is treating the election as a game of NLHE when itās more akin to something like 2-7 single draw and we have like a J7532 and are freaking out because our opponent didnāt draw anything but for all we know heās got 5 Uno cards and is just smug because being smug has worked his entire adult life.
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Coup Plotters And Bedwetters might make a good name for an indie rock band.
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I have never felt less confident in the evidence. I think people are expressing much more confidence than is justified. It feels like panic. It looks like Biden will lose so If people want to ditch him ok but I donāt think alternatives are clearly better except in peoplesā heads.
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