Exceptions for Bernie, Omar and AOC.
https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5d217599-3223-4ba1-ba09-3464095c0001
I donât know what to think. This is 538âs 14th ranked pollster.
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- Should Joe Biden be the nominee, Donald Trump edges him by one point today, 44% to 43%, with 7% voting for a candidate from another party and 6% saying they are undecided. With the exception of the one-point decline for Biden, each of those numbers is exactly where it was in April. Trump leads by 6 points among men (down from a 13-point lead in April); Biden leads by 5 points among women (down from a 11-point lead in April.) Use the pull-down menus in SurveyUSAâs exclusive interactive tracking graphs to see the changes in other demographic subgroups over time.
- Should Biden step down and be replaced by Vice President Kamala Harris, she starts off 2 points behind Biden and loses to Trump by 3 points, 45% to 42%. 7% vote for a third-party candidate; 5% are undecided. Three months ago, Harris trailed Trump by 7 points among all likely voters. Harris runs 4 points behind Biden among Black voters, taking 62% of the Black vote as compared to Bidenâs 66%; she runs 6 points ahead of Biden among very liberal voters, taking 88% of their votes compared to 82% for Biden.
- If Biden should instead be replaced on the ticket by former First Lady Michelle Obama, the race is tied, with she and Trump each taking 45% of the vote. 6% vote third-party; 4% are undecided. Both candidates are up a single point since April. Obama runs 5 points behind Biden in urban areas, taking 52% of the vote to his 57%, and 3 points behind him with men, taking 38% of the vote to his 41%. She is 7 points stronger than Biden among suburban women, taking 55% of the vote to Bidenâs 48%; 6 points stronger in rural areas, taking 32% to Bidenâs 26%; 6 points stronger among women, taking 51% of the vote to Bidenâs 45%; and 6 points stronger among parents of children under age 18, where she takes 40% to Bidenâs 36%.
- California Governor Gavin Newsom runs notably behind Joe Biden, losing to Trump by 11 points, 46% to 35%, with 10% voting for a third-party candidate and 8% undecided. This is effectively unchanged from April, when Newsom trailed Trump by 12. Newsom runs 16 points behind Biden among Black voters, where he takes 50% of the vote to Bidenâs 66%. He is also 15 points behind Biden in urban areas, where he leads Trump by just 4 points, 42% to 38%; Biden leads by 24 points in urban parts of the country. There are no demographic subgroups where Newsom out-performs Biden.â
Say what you will about the cognitive abilities of demantia joe, at least he is white and owns a penis.
No one owns⌠never mind.
Kamala can still gain ground. Joe canât really. Itâs that simple. Maybe Kamala is a disaster but we know Joe is.
She has the political chops of Kang and Kodos when they disguised themselves as Clinton/Gore. In a rational world where sheâs replacing a dementia riddled candidate to run against an insane fascist who is also hitting that age, it should be a slam dunk for her.
Although I do feel guilty in that what give me the ick about her as the kids these days say, is that she doesnât come off very genuine, sheâs more like a block of wood. And it seems like that shouldnât matter. Is she qualified in the sense she knows how the levels of power work? Do I mostly agree with her on policy? Both things are mostly yes so I guess I shouldnât really give a shit if she massively fails âwould have a beer withâ test.
While I wouldnât want to have a beer with kamala, Iâd very much like to see her drunk.
I think Vice President Harris and I would get along fine. We are both big fans of Venn Diagrams.
Iâd take a xanny with Harris, that sounds fun.
yeah, thatâs my opinion as well⌠rightly or wrongly i think the âsleepy/dementia joeâ description is locked in at this point. every small mistake, misspeak, stutter, slow step going forward is just going to be so magnified over every bit of media for clicks that it will be impossible to solidify the voter base.
maybe weâre all just too online, but i dont see how you win after pelosi, schiff, schumer, jeffries are all on record saying they dont think heâs fit to be the candidate.
I didnât realize she was in the Mahomes family
So did Lorena Bobbit?
Bernie and AOC calculated that the only way to get the establishment to ditch Biden was if they were seen publicly supporting him.
That would really be hilarious if it were 4D chess by them that worked out.
To be fair, Bernieâs âsupportâ of him was the most lukewarm shit ever, almost to the point of being a comedy routine. âDoes the man forget names occasionally? Yes. Does the man have trouble getting through multiple sentences? Yes. Does he lose his train of thought sometimes? Yes.â âŚwalks away
Hopefully Kamala does better than her insanely disappointing results in the 2020 primaries would seem to indicate.
Sheâs due
Hot take: I think she will.
I feel like especially in this era where the Primaries are an 8 month long 24-hour news cycle, the gap between being a good candidate for winning over hardcore members of your party and being a good candidate for winning a general election are two very different things.
Kamala wasnât inspiring to lifelong Democrats, but I think she will be competent and put together well enough to translate to hold that support and get through to some people who are somewhere in the undecided morass.