2024 US Presidential Election (Taylor's Version)

Six years ago I could buy a bag of bitcoins for a nickel

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I think there’s plenty of brainwashing going on in the social media landscape as well. I’m going to assume that here when you say “the media” you mean the organized mainstream press. But the chaotic populist social media cesspool is all over inflation as well, it plays well into their “every bad outcome you experience is someone else’s fault” narratives.

Gimme five bees for a quarter, you’d say.

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Haven’t there been a zillion articles and posts and all that showing this is exactly what’s happening?

It’s not even 100% that traditional indicators have failed, though yes many of them are indisputably awful metrics, so much as some indicators have just stopped being used by the Things Are Better lobby

No, I am not aware of any articles that indicate that the financial situation of Americans is almost definitely actually much worse now versus six years ago, but that we simply don’t have the metrics to demonstrate it.

Right? Idiots can’t even grasp that they have the economic power, because we live in an economic democracy. Dumbasses.

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I read this about this topic just today.

the gas graph has both lines. both go up and down, as you can see, even though inflation has a cumulative effect.

is this a “back in my day” bit? cause it’s working.

It’s not clear how to square positive economic indicators with negative economic sentiment. It’s perhaps even more difficult to figure out why American’s say that the economy is terrible even as they spend, strike, and vote as if they think that the economy is fine.

It’s pretty obvious to me: people are getting a lot more demanding on what constitutes “good enough” on pretty much everything. Too much media telling people to get exactly what they want and not to settle and to fight for it. These are core themes in advertising now.

My theory is a good way to capture the zeitgeist is to pay attention to advertising obviously produced by big ad agencies. They spend a lot of time figuring out what motivates people.

So you think it’s people thinking moreso that the economy was bad before and it’s better but still bad now? Maybe polls need a “has economy improved but it’s still not good enough option” rather than is economy good binary?

No, their media keeps telling them it’s bad, they get a lot more than they used to, so they think it’s bad and getting worse. Back when people paid attention to the MSM, they sometimes heard about good economic news, now they don’t. Therefore the economy is worse.

Do you think if this economy continues current trends and trump wins do all of a sudden people think it’s good economy again within a year?

“statistical fuckery” is telling us that most people are doing a little bit better themselves, but also underestimate everyone else. maybe it’s related to the psychological component of inflation, or maybe it’s blatant partisanship, the divide between left and right on this issue is super obvious. there’s also the fact that both far right wing and far left wing appear to complain about the same inflation (horseshoe), but assign the blame with wildly differing points of view.

you can try to write off the math as being plain wrong, but then you are left with no concrete argument.

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Not in the overall numbers. There is nothing partisan about how SM affects us. Republicans will tick up their opinions, Dems will tick down. But the feeds will still be overwhelmingly bad because good news doesn’t make for good conspiracy fodder and therefore doesn’t get retweeted.

you should have no trouble finding and posting them here then. such articles would also surely win the next few nobels, not to mention make billions in the bond market.

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this is a good article. one thing jumped out

As you’ve probably guessed, it’s the economic measures that seem to be right, not the opinon surveys. U.S. approval of labor unions hit 71% in August, it’s highest number since 1965. And that sentiment is backed up by a remarkable surge in labor activity, as workers in industries from film to automobiles to trucking to mail delivery have threatened or pursued labor action, resulting in better wages and better contracts.

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https://twitter.com/DanRosenheck/status/1725239279691972692?t=d11l10pRn5mXK7untdK5OA&s=19

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Trump is extremely good at manipulating the MSM and online discourse.

He’ll say some nonsense like “The job market is the strongest it has been in any of our lifetimes” and the media will be awash with “well it’s strong but not THAT strong” takes, and Maddow will run a segment about how things were better for workers in the 1950s and gramps is still alive so chessmate, and resistance libs on twitter will be like “here are FOUR measures where the job market was actually stronger under GWB” and people will conclude trump is mostly right.

Meanwhile Biden is like “the economic indicators will speak for themselves, I must make every effort to never overstate the situation and stoke irrational consumer confidence or, worse, criticism from the right.”

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