Oh, good. 
Maybe the Romney wing will expand to include GW âthat was some weird shitâ B.
Biden could foil those plans by dumping Harris and running with Haley.
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What
A pterodactyl or a brooch
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can you explain why champagne is a ham sandwich?
OBAMA AND BIDEN HATE EACH OTHER! OBAMA NEVER RESPECTED BIDEN, THOUGHT HE WAS DUMB, AND A TOTAL LIGHTWEIGHT. WILL BE AN INTERESTING COUPLE OF WEEKS. OBAMA WANTS HIM OUT, WANTS V.P. HARRIS IN!
Donald Trump Truth Social 02:29 PM EST 07/12/24
Someone posted the 538 Forecast upthread. I have no idea what is powering that now, but its not Nate Silverâs model or methodology, because he retained ownership of that and took it with him when he left 538. Heâs.running a substack and doing his own forecast. Here is the most recent iteration:
He mentioned in a blog post that this is very likely an overestimate of Bidenâs chances, because this far out the model builds in a significant chance of the political landscape shifting (a candidate has a great debate, or some extraneous event). And Nate, like the rest of us, doesnât see what could happen to move the needle in Bidens favor. In other words, if the election were to be held tomorrow, Bidens numbers would be significantly worse than this.
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Yea Iâm gonna go with Nate and Nate Cohn and Dave wasserman and basically everyone that is saying his chances are in fact not good
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Best strategy is now hope Trump fumbles the ball somehow. Maybe thereâs a secret recording of him admitting to assaulting women for fun. Or maybe someone accuses him of rape and he says I never met them and it turns out thereâs photos of them together. Or maybe he gets convicted for multiple crimes by multiple juries in multiple cases.
A lot of things can happen between now and November.
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It would be a sort of chefs kiss if convicted felon Trump were to end American democracy by an absolute wafflecrush in both the electoral college and popular vote.
I donât use this word lightly but there is LITERALLY nothing that could be a fumble.
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well done 
Right? We already have sworn depositions from two of his rape victims.
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I honest to god donât think itâs crazy to say he could actually kill someone on live tv and it would have very little effect on his approval. If itâs the right person it would help.
I genuinely canât think of a single thing that would be a fumble.
Imagine multiple media outlets ran absolute concrete evidence Trump was an actual Russian spy. It would simply be âfake newsâ and forgotten in days.
There is nothing.
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Right. As that Epsilon piece put it the other day âthere is no confidence that could be restoredâ.
Why did the emails thing land for Clinton? Because voters already had the sense that she was sleazy and corrupt. Why did swiftboating land on Kerry when Clinton, W and Trump are all actual draft dodgers? Because people already felt like Kerry was a phony. The senility thing is landing because voters already felt Biden was too old and past it. A scandal that plays into existing perceptions is very difficult to fight. Why would voters give someone the benefit of the doubt when they already didnât like them?
Every time Biden does fine it will not fix anything and every time he looks bad it will reinforce the narrative. Things are bad and will inexorably get worse.
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