This is the 538 average, not a single poll. Also, common sense can be wrong. There’s a lot of conflicting information so it’s hard to come up with a simple satisfying explanation but for now I’m settling on how important it is to be out there, getting seen, being heard. Like, even if you’re dead.
Edit: it’s not their average of polls but a 538 simulation based on polls and whatever their model is. Edit #2: FWIW their current average has Trump up by 1.9% but as of this moment (7/12, 2 PM ET) doesn’t include polls since 7/10.
So much talk on Twitter about two things mainly as far as not wanting joe to step down:
this democracy vs dictatorship gotta vote democracy, yes bro everyone knows that, that’s why we would prefer to win, this is like what rupar and people hanging on to
2)media coverage is just against joe, they gotta talk about trumps lying and all his other shit, they been doing that shit for years, the people that gonna vote for him know what he is, how about we give them a candidate that might actually get people wanting to vote and not just begrudgingly pulling lever to stop fascism
Like this tweet below, everyone knows he lies man, he’s been doing it for 10 years now, the people voting for him are aware and either don’t care or they don’t believe he’s lying and can’t be convinced otherwise
I remember when most here thought the RED WAVE of 2022 was gonna massacre the dems, and the polls seemed to agree.
I think polling can break down when emotions are so high civil war is on the table.
Throw in a Russian disinformation campaign, assisted by the republicans, designed to demoralize voters and perpetuate the idea that it is all hopeless and you might as well give up , because the fascists are gonna win.
I live in Texas, and in my neck of the woods, enthusiasm in down for Trump.
No Trump train parades with the morons in their oversized truck.
Not much Trump flag flying etc, compared to 2020, 2016.
Most people in that tribe that defect , aren’t gonna announce it. Might even lie to a pollster, or their family.
Sure most will still vote for him.
But I expect dems will overperform and Biden / whomever will beat Trump.
This isn’t really true - the widespread belief in a red wave was in spite of the polls, not because of them. Here is a 538 article arguing that the 2022 polls were about the most accurate ever
If anything the polls have been biased towards Dems the last several cycles. That’s one thing that makes Biden’s poor polling even more alarming, he underperformed the polls last time. Hillary underperformed the polls in 2016. Especially in swing states. If that happens again it’s going to be a landslide.
It does feel like the Trump hype is at an all time low. Maybe the lulz factor has worn off and these chucklefucks stay home to watch South Park on election day?
I really don’t know what to make of stuff like this.
Remember that as Trump revealed himself to be an unabashed racist (“…and some, I assume, are good people”), his poll numbers went up. Feels like a lifetime ago, but I remember pundits being surprised (of course now we know it’s a cheat code). Maybe this is a bizarro version of that. Joe Biden is senile → poll numbers improve.
Releasing stuff like that is really 4D chess. Gotta flood the zone with that kind of shit if you’re Team Biden. Couch it as a criticism and then throw in a lapse that is NBD.
I’m waiting for something like this “One staffer was concerned about Biden’s mental fitness when he was watching Jeopardy and the first place contestant didn’t wager enough to cover if second place bet it all. Instead of throwing his remote at the TV, he said it was fine if the leader was unfamiliar with the category.”
Staffers raised their eyebrows when one of them asked the President “Mr. President, why is Champagne so delicious? Because its actually a ham sandwich” and the President responded with “I don’t get the joke.”
Yeah idk, I personally don’t think there’s anything disqualifyingly wrong with him. Some people here and in the media/politics might see him as senile but that isn’t necessarily true for the general population. When they see him out there working, that’s good for him.
It seems like there are subgroups that are always there, sometimes dormant but ready to pop up when the conditions are right. Like the facists were defeated, but only temporarily, and they never went away, they’re still here. When Trump came along he sprinkled them with water and fertilizer and they sprouted so the polls reflected that.
