Alaska and NC took forever last time.
That is not a good line of early voters. Thankfully theyāre in Indiana, aka the Alabama of the Midwest.
HENDERSON, Nev. ā
After Katie Kern and her father, Robert Kern, cast their ballots for former President Trump in this suburb of Las Vegas, they said they wanted to make sure their vote was counted in the critical battleground state of Nevada so that the Republican would retake the White House.
āIām probably more of a last-minute voter, but I wanted to vote earlier this year to make sure that it had time to get in the system, rather than the last-minute thing that seems to be an issue,ā said Katie, a 40-year-old voice teacher, after voting at a Boys & Girls Club.
Here you go @ChrisV, Nevada 2024 explained. Okay probably not. But Republicans donāt do original thoughts. Someone is planting these ideas to vote early so your vote doesnāt get stuffed in a plastic tote and hidden under the desk.
The GOP nominee falsely tarred mail ballots as fraudulent and rigged in 2020, a message that affected GOP turnout that year and that Republican leaders across the nation have tried to blunt with varying levels of success ever since.
āItās a problem,ā said Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida who closely tracks early voting data and noted that Republicans historically were more likely than Democrats to cast their ballots before election day.
āThis used to be a strength for Republicans and now itās not, and itās all because of one person saying these things,ā McDonald said. āAnd thatās quite remarkable, if you stop and think about it, that he could have such a deep influence on peopleās behavior, and he does it unlike any other politician can do.ā
Not a cult though.
āThis is a political climate where you canāt take anything for granted,ā said Harding, an administrative coordinator for students at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, after voting at a recreation center near campus. āI never thought Iād see that on the ballot, where itās even in question. And if that can happen, all these different things that we think are already guaranteed rights by the Constitution that are already in place are in question.ā
But she also said she supported Harris because she believes that immigrants ought to be able to come to the United States and contribute to the nation, and because of her disgust over the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, as Trump and his allies tried to stop the certification of his 2020 election defeat.
This is literally the first time Iāve ever seen the bolded in print from an average person on the street interview. JFC itās nice to hear one sane person amidst even staunch Democrat voters talking about āborder securityā.
āThe economy is really at the top of the list. Weāve basically been stalled out economically for four years,ā he said, saying that Democrats have failed to take responsibility for the financial pressure facing many Americans. āWeād like some answers, and so weāre going with the people who actually provide answers, even if we donāt like them.ā
Yep, totally stalled out after kicking so much ass under Trump the first time.
1 Like
Yes its not like there are Indiana laws that prohibit counting the early ballots before election day!
me too
honestly think weāre going to find that she actually works from her local dem party in some capacity like it always happens with these āundecidedā voters who are āspontaneouslyā convinced that they need to vote for orange man
https://x.com/mattyglesias/status/1849794210695663735?t=VxuzhiQzql8bhOsyH5sNzQ&s=19
For purposes of poll, polls=polling average, right means they accurately predict the final national vote.
Edit suggested by crash_face: āError favors Harrisā = poll gives more % to Harris than her actual %, so sheāll do worse than predicted
Poll on Polls (Anonymous)
- The polls are right.
- The polls are wrong. The error favors Trump.
- The polls are wrong. The error favors Harris.
0
voters
Even if so, Iām still amazed she had this take instead of bitching about Trump torpedoing the border security bill. The Overton window is so fucked up on immigration.
You forgot āthe polls are a monkey slinging shit covered darts at the wall.ā
9 Likes
Matty basically copied my map except flipped AZ and NV
1 Like
That makes me feel a lot better about @ChrisVās doom and gloom. Hopefully Nevada is an outlier and not a harbinger.
Cool how Yggy not only magically knows what the real numbers are, but also knows why pollsters are deliberately fudging their numbers, kinda wish he would share his sources on this.
3 Likes
āError favors Harrisā = poll gives more % to Harris than her actual %, so sheāll do worse than predicted, or
= Harris will do better than the poll predicted?
I think you mean the former but just checking. Harris (and this forum) would find the latter to be favorable
1 Like
This is my map. NE then changes the rules so the whole state goes red and SC says thatās cool and then House gives it to Trump.
2 Likes
Iām still firmly in the camp of āThe polls underestimated Trump twice camp, so fool me once shame on we canāt get fooled again.ā
13 Likes
I didnāt forget. I didnāt know how to word it and figured people could write it in. Also debated anonymous or not. People can say what they think and why.
For myself, I think the polls are wrong and favor Trump due to a combination of outright shenanigans, questionable methods, and feels. Feels are not rational but some of what the polling is saying is very hard to accept. If Iām wrong so be it.
Thatās where Iām at. People have said the pollsters probably corrected their error, or even over corrected it. But I have no way of knowing that. All I have to go on is the last two elections
Yes, I meant this. Editing post to clarify.
He actually does say why they are doing this - because if they are caught āgetting it wrong againā, its best not to be in favor of the same guy they underestimated in the past two elections. And they would likely be right to do so (if they want to minimize the damage to their credibility and keep their jobs).
Thatās a plausible theory, but as I said, thereās no evidence for it. Also itās equally plausible that:
-
The polls actually are correct.
-
The polls are systematically off for unknown reasons and not because the pollsters are deliberately fudging the numbers.
Well I made an almost identical post here a few days ago IIRC but I didnāt provide any evidence because I donāt have any. I just like bullshitting on the internet and didnāt think anyone would take me seriously. Plus if you end up being right you can repost your prediction and pretend you are a genius. I wouldnāt make any wagers based of of this guyās tweets but YMMV
Sure, I just hold Yggy to a higher standard because he pretends to be a serious, professional opinion-haver and people inexplicably take his hot takes seriously as though heās not just spitballing/trolling most of the time.