Thoughtful discussion of how to interpret the recent Selzer Iowa poll:
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/11/03/crude-bayesian-updating-from-iowa-election-poll/
One canvassing or phonebank shift would have you believing the senior women numbers from Selzer.
I’m not lying when I tell you that they are our strongest warriors. They are the most driven and passionate voters out there, and they hate the far right. I’m not basing this on only talking to Dems, either.
My races are nonpartisan local races, and we’ve been canvassing everyone. Older women are on FIRE about abortion, about book banning, about the racism, i don’t care if they are Reps or Dems, it’s been fairly consistent across the board.
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Trump Isn’t Perfect, but He’s the Better Choice
by Nikki Haley
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Your career is over, you don’t have to do this anymore.
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Results start coming in force a little later than you’d expect. iirc from 2020, data was sparse and meaningless from 7-8, meaningful data was coming in from 8-9, and we started having a decent picture of what was happening around 10.
This year will likely be faster due to the much smaller amount of mail in voting.
I love that Trump immediately defaults to farmers when Iowa comes up because it’s yet more evidence that he is incapable of holding a nuanced view on literally anything.
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Farm workers definitely also love Trump.
Not the ones he’s promising to deport.
That might be true.
Yeah, I’ve seen a lot of farm workers driving around California and I don’t think they love Trump all that much.
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Kornacki talks about how he’ll be looking at Osceola County in FL which has a huge Puerto Rican population. It might give a clue on how PA will go. 14:21
Those folks get like five votes each, they can break a couple off for the T-man.
It’s Iowa too of course. Wanna be a farm owner in Iowa? You might look into starting a Labor Camp!
I remember when a poll had W up in Illinois that Gore took seriously enough to make a stop.
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Lol fair. 45-65 if we are getting specific.
hahaha, you know those meme videos that have been going around where it’s like “1 liberal teen vs. 20 Trump supporters”?
This just dropped:
GO
EVERYWHERE
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“We’re ahead of my opponent, and I feel comfortable with our polling,” she insisted. “Our polling is a little different. We take polling, but we also combine it with AI, which reads all of what’s happening on social media and across the Internet.”
ahhhhhhhhhhhhhahahahahahahahahahahahaha
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