A few thousand is a lot. A really lot.
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Ok maybe you don’t know me, hi I’m Chad and I have bet all the cash I have multiple times across the years, often while having a negative net worth, like right now
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I know you brother. I’ll bet you $50, which is a lot for someone poor as myself. Now, you’re thinking that you won’t get too excited over winning a paltry $50, but you would have done something far more incredible. You would have beaten me.
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I asked Ettingermentum about this on Twitch stream just now, he has a Masters in Political Science with a thesis on American politics, I think he is a smart and knowledgeable guy. He said the 65+ voters in Iowa had their formative years during the Farm Crisis and were in their 40s when Obama was winning the state, and that he thinks unexpected strength for Kamala among senior Iowans to some extent at least is very plausible.
He’s doing a Q&A Stream still, at the moment.
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I mean, the clearest sign of whether the Iowa poll has legs is going to be in FL. Trump +2 or less will be a gigantic signal
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No apologies - but I’m angleshooting you here. You just get Trump, but I get the field!
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I’m struggling to find a decent timetable for when to expect calls / big news from key states on election night. Does anyone have a link please?
In my imo the only timetable-related thing to be confident in is that it will be full of false starts and/or outlets saying “well normally we’d call it but we gotta wait because of mirages and othet stuff”
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I bet my net worth on Biden last time. I was ready to jump from my sixth floor balcony while on mushrooms when I put the TV on and saw Trump declaring himself the winner. Then, as a true degen, I loaned another 5k from a friend and bet it on Biden when the odds rocketed. All’s well that ends well etc, but not touching this one with a ten-foot pole.
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Don’t see how FL is relevant to IA?
If the IA data is correct, then we should see a large swing of older females towards Kamala nationwide. Since FL is going to report first, if that holds in exits in FL, we can be pretty sure the IA poll is not an outlier
If the Selzer poll is accurate at all, I would expect it to be a localized phenomenon. Kamala is clearly going to get her clock cleaned in FL. There was a 3.6% swing away from Dems in 2020, the same year Biden repaired the Blue Wall in the Midwest. You can’t use Florida as evidence of anything in the Midwest.
I really hope it is before Thursday. I am doing a Bourbon Trail trip this weekend with people of mixed political opinions. Saw this from 2020
Saw this, who knows though…
Every state is a little different and I’m sure there are effects there that are Iowa-specific, but it’s not a total island either. Stuff like the male/female splits should be highly correlated everywhere.
Maybe it will make me feel better if I post orange man bad stuff on the facebooks of my aunts who constantly post stuff about st Peter telling Kamala she’s at the wrong rally while also saying their kids neices and nephews need to turn down the hostile rhetoric
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I expect the farm owners do love Trump. About 5% of people in Iowa are farm owners.
Farm workers, ie farmers? I don’t expect they love Trump as much.
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i didnt have my net worth but i did have about $25k on Biden -160, it made absolutely no sense that Biden was +9 in the polls but had worse odds in the betting markets than Hillary who was polling at a +3 did. I’ll probably end up with a few k on Kamala but i’m nowhere near as confident this time around.
