Democrats actually do better with lower turnout now. There’s been a big shift. Trump does well with low propensity voters. Highly engaged voters skew democrats these days.
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Losing is hardly an obstacle to determined racists. They lost a whole entire war and yet kept fighting and won the aftermath. Trump will be gone, but the racism isn’t. I’m not sure what the next scion of racism will look like, but he will be there.
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Trump does well with less engaged whites. As a percentage of their respective groups, there are a lot more disengaged PoC than disengaged whites.
That may be true, but there are a lot more white people. Hoping for high overall turnout is no longer good for democrats. All the numbers suggest this. The less reliable the voter, the more likely they are to back Trump. That’s why Kamala does a bit better in LV models.
I still don’t think that is strictly true that high turnout is better for Trump, even if he brings some new voters to the polls. It could still be true that high turnout is less good, and Kamala’s advantage with LVs is because of her advantages with early and mail in voting. If you have already voted, you pass a LV screen
Nate Cohn has written about this a bunch lately: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/15/upshot/election-democrats-republicans-turnout-trump.html
Yeah, I hate the methodology. His sample size is two elections in the same year, and the weirdest American election of all time. Not including any more years - - years from which he has data, mind you! - - is malpractice.
But the main thing is, right now, the high turnout is being driven by women, and, if you believe the polls of early voters specifically, it’s being driven by Kamala voters. If you think that high turnout of - - sure, granted, more likely to be engaged - - female Kamala voters necessarily implies high turnout of hasn’t-voted-in-2022-or-2020 white guys, I think you’ll have another think coming.
Is there any literature about the impact of weather in cities where a percentage of voters don’t have cars (especially Philly) versus rural area where almost all do?
I would assume good weather matters most for people who have to walk/bus/train to polls, which must skew ridiculously to Dems.
Brexit passed because of flooding in London
Nothing bad actually happens to Republicans when they lose. I mean, it does on a macro level because Republicans can’t govern, but not “you can’t get an abortion anymore and might die giving birth to your rapist’s baby” type stuff.
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What I dont get about all the stats leaking: Are that counted real votes or exit polls? In Germany you couldnt leak exit polls before the polls are closed.
Didn’t they vote on that twice?
I’ve been saying that for quite awhile. People are tired of trump.
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Example of how social media completely skews reality:
I was chatting online with a European yesterday (who I know, not just some stranger in an online game or something). Hates Trump. We’ve joked about him plenty in the past.
Referring to Trump and Vance, he said:
Honestly, I don’t listen to those kind of podcasts regularly cause I think they are mind numbing. But they are appearing a lot in the media and actually answering questions whereas Kamala does seem a bit like a rabbit in headlights whenever she is in an interview. I can understand their tactic of not taking too many media opportunities for that reason.
I asked him how he could possibly think Harris looks bad in interviews. She’s clearly very intelligent, prepared, on message, and, frankly, in her right mind.
He reiterated that he doesn’t think she looks good in interviews, which is mind boggling to me. But then he said that most of his Twitter feed is pro-Trump slop, so maybe his view has just been skewed.
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There goes the violent left putting fear into our Politics again
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She’s a black woman. Even men that are liberal have been raised in a culture that sets them up to accept false narratives about her intelligence.
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The quick and dirty is that he hasn’t actually watched a Harris interview, but has seen the right wing “Kamala is too dumb to put a sentence together” propaganda, and it has found some purchase.
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I asked a Republican friend of mine why he’s voting for Trump and he immediately said “Harris can’t put two sentences together”. I don’t watch a lot of right wing media, but I’ve seen Trump make similar comments so I assume this is a common right wing talking point. Of course, she is infinitely more coherent than Trump, so what gives? I guess I just have to write my friend off as another person completely brainwashed by the right wing media. I tell myself that these folks are smart enough to see through at least a little of the bullshit, but I guess I’m being way too optimistic.
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